钢钢钢钢钢周报：关注库存变动-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for the steel industry is neutral, including ratings for steel products, month spreads, steel mill profits, scrap steel, and finished product inventories [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the futures market fluctuated downward. Hot metal production decreased slightly but remained significantly higher than the historical average. During the National Day holiday, the total output of five major steel products decreased week - on - week, with obvious inventory accumulation and a significant decline in demand. Rebar production decreased, with slight inventory accumulation and a sharp drop in apparent demand. Hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly, with inventory accumulation and a significant decline in apparent demand. Long - process steel mills' profits continued to narrow, with some incurring losses, and short - process steel mills' off - peak electricity profits were in the red. A round of coke price hikes was implemented. It is recommended to focus on variety spread opportunities [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Production - As of October 10, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 2.4154 million tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.27 million tons, significantly higher than the same period last year. The national blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 84.27%, with a slight week - on - week decline, and the capacity utilization rate of 85 electric arc furnaces was 51.07%. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 56.28%, continuing to decline slightly week - on - week [17] - This week, the total output of the five major steel products was 8.6331 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 37,600 tons. Rebar production was 2.034 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36,200 tons. Hot - rolled coil production was 3.2329 million tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons. Cold - rolled and medium - thick plate production increased slightly, both significantly higher than the historical average [24] 3.2 Demand - In terms of demand, the total consumption of the five major steel products this week was 7.3545 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6937 million tons, significantly lower than the same period last year. Rebar weekly consumption was 1.4601 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 950,600 tons, lower than the historical average. Hot - rolled coil consumption was 2.9097 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 336,400 tons [40] - This week's trading volume decreased slightly week - on - week. The trading volume in the north decreased week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. The trading volume in the south increased significantly week - on - week, while the trading volume in the East China region remained significantly lower than the same period last year [59] 3.3 Inventory - This week, the billet inventory of 55 billet - rolling factories was 469,500 tons, with a slight week - on - week inventory reduction, lower than the same period last year. The mainstream warehouse billet inventory was 1.3436 million tons, with obvious week - on - week inventory accumulation, slightly lower than the same period [76] - The five major steel products are in the process of inventory accumulation, and the overall inventory has exceeded the level of last year. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in the overall inventory [3] 3.4 Valuation - The rebar month - spread structure is contango, showing a continuous reverse - arbitrage trend. The market feedback indicates that the subsequent rebar warehouse receipt pressure is relatively large, and attention should be paid to the delivery situation [3] - According to calculations, the current on - peak electricity production of electric arc furnaces in East China incurs a loss of 211 yuan per ton of steel, and off - peak electricity incurs a loss of 81 yuan per ton [3] 3.5 Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows the estimated monthly balance of crude steel from 2025/6 to 2026/6, including data on initial and ending steel mill and social inventories, pig iron and crude steel production, imports, exports, total consumption, and production - demand differences [120]