南华期货生猪企业风险管理日报-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Long - term strategic outlook on the pig industry is bullish, but short - to medium - term trends are still mainly determined by fundamentals. The policy bottom has emerged, but the market bottom may require a production cycle to form [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the pig industry. Positive factors include improved macro - sentiment, high standard - fat price spread, medium - to long - term policy - driven capacity reduction expectations, and speculative entry sentiment for secondary fattening. Negative factors are the high inventory of sows capable of reproduction, high inventory of large - scale enterprises, and weak downstream terminal consumption [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Price Range Forecast - The main contract price is testing the 13,000 - point integer mark. The current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 19.83%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility (3 - year) is 61.17% [2]. 3.2 Pig Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Recommendations 3.2.1 Inventory Management - If product inventory is high and there are concerns about inventory impairment, sell 20% of the LH2511 contract in the live pig futures to lock in finished - product profits. If there are no suitable prices on the futures market, sell 20% of the LH2411 - C - 1300 call options. If one wants to avoid inventory impairment while not giving up the opportunity for a significant price increase, buy the LH2411 - P - 1100 put options [2]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - If there are future procurement plans and concerns about rising raw material prices, buy live pig forward contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs. If there are no suitable prices on the futures market, sell the LH2411 - P - 1100 put options. If one is worried about rising procurement prices but does not want to lock in procurement and sales profits in advance and believes that procurement costs may be lower, buy the LH2411 - C - 1300 call options [2]. 3.3 Pig Spot Prices - The national average spot price is 11.1 yuan/kg with no change. The prices in different regions vary: Henan is 11.28 yuan/kg (up 0.07 yuan/kg, 0.62%); Hunan is 10.76 yuan/kg (up 0.05 yuan/kg, 0.47%); Liaoning is 11.47 yuan/kg (down 0.11 yuan/kg, - 0.95%); Sichuan is 10.83 yuan/kg (up 0.1 yuan/kg, 0.93%); Guangdong is 11.46 yuan/kg with no change [8]. 3.4 Pig Futures Prices - Pig 01 contract closed at 11,670 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan/ton (- 1.97%); Pig 03 contract closed at 11,280 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan/ton (- 2.25%); Pig 05 contract closed at 11,920 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton (- 1.81%); Pig 07 contract closed at 12,720 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan/ton (- 1.59%); Pig 09 contract closed at 13,515 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton (- 1.74%); Pig 11 contract closed at 11,050 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton (- 1.03%) [9]. 3.5 Pig Price Spreads and Basis - LH01 - 03 spread is 390 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (6.85%); LH03 - 05 spread is - 640 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (6.67%); LH05 - 07 spread is - 800 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (1.91%); LH07 - 09 spread is - 795 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (- 4.22%); LH09 - 11 spread is 2,465 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton (- 4.83%); LH11 - 01 spread is - 620 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton (- 16.22%); Henan - 01 contract basis is - 390 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan/ton (- 43.88%); Henan - 05 contract basis is - 640 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton (- 31.18%); Henan - 09 contract basis is - 2,235 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan/ton (- 12.18%) [17][19].