Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Long - term oil prices are under pressure and are expected to oscillate at a low level in the range of $55 - 65 per barrel. PX & PTA are expected to oscillate following costs. MEG is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern in the short term. BZ & EB are expected to oscillate with costs in the short term, and styrene may perform stronger than pure benzene [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - OPEC+ will maintain the same production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November as in October. Brent crude oil fell below $60 per barrel this week. Geopolitical factors such as the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas reduced the supply interruption risk in the Red Sea and Suez Canal, causing the "risk premium" of crude oil to fade [4] PX & PTA - China's PX operating rate maintained high - load operation this week. The overall PX operation increased with the restart of several overseas units. The supply - demand outlook weakened significantly, and the downward support became weaker. PTA's inventory accumulation rate narrowed, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter. The PTA processing margin slightly recovered to around 180 yuan per ton. It is expected to oscillate following costs [4] MEG - The load of ethylene glycol changed little this week. The continuous contraction of coal - based ethylene glycol profits may inhibit the capacity release rhythm. The port inventory climbed to a new high this year, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation at the end of the year. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern in the short term [5] BZ & EB - The domestic operating rate of pure benzene decreased this week, and the operating rates of downstream units declined. The inventory in East China ports continued to decline slightly but was still at a relatively high level. The supply of styrene decreased significantly in the short term due to concentrated device overhauls. There is a supply - demand mismatch contradiction. In the short term, they are expected to oscillate with costs, and styrene may be stronger than pure benzene [5] Polyester and Weaving - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of China's polyester industry remained unchanged at 87.8% this week. The operating rate of sample weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was flat at 64.06%. The average number of terminal weaving order days increased by 0.5 days to 14.79 days. The orders in the weaving market are differentiated, and the demand for winter warm - keeping fabrics is gradually picking up [23]
金信期货观点-20251017
Jin Xin Qi Huo·2025-10-17 10:05