Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, cold and rainy weather in the north will disrupt terminal construction, potentially leading to a situation where the peak season is not prosperous. As asphalt terminal demand gradually enters the off - season, the fundamentals face weakening pressure. The current fundamentals provide limited support for the market, and with high production plans, the weakening of asphalt fundamentals may suppress prices. - Currently, the influencing factors of crude oil are generally bearish. With OPEC+ continuing to increase production, supply - side pressure is gradually increasing, while the demand side is under pressure as refined oil enters the off - season. The expectation of supply surplus is strengthening, which will suppress prices in the medium and long term. Geopolitical tensions easing and macro - level disturbances increase the market's downward pressure, and the cost - side support for asphalt weakens. - Overall, in the short term, asphalt lacks upward momentum, and crude oil will continue to dominate the market trend, which is expected to remain weakly volatile. [7][50] Summary by Catalog 1. Market Focus and Key Data - Market Focus: Sino - US trade tensions have intensified; the IEA monthly report has raised the supply growth forecast and lowered the demand growth forecast; the Fed's latest "Beige Book" shows that the US labor market remains stable overall, but demand is still weak [7]. - Key Data: As of October 15, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 35.8%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous statistical period; as of October 17, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 62.4 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons from the previous week; as of October 17, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 72.7 tons, an increase of 3.7 tons from the previous week; as of October 17, the social inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 105.1 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons from the previous week [7]. 2. Bull and Bear Focus - Bullish Factors: Macro - economic improvement [10]. - Bearish Factors: High refinery production plans and OPEC+ production increase [10]. 3. Macro - analysis - Fed's Expected Rate Cut: Powell hinted at a possible rate cut in October due to weak employment. The financial market generally bets that the Fed will cut interest rates again at the October 28 - 29 meeting. As of October 16, the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in October was 2.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut was 97.3% [11]. - IEA's Adjustment of Crude Oil Forecast: The IEA monthly report raised the 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, maintaining the expectation of supply surplus [12]. - Geopolitical Situation: A cease - fire agreement in Gaza has been reached, but its implementation may be repeated. There is still great uncertainty in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and attacks on energy infrastructure may affect crude oil supply and support oil prices [13]. 4. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: As of October 17, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 62.4 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons from the previous week. The output of major refineries was basically flat, and that of local refineries increased slightly. The operating rate of major refineries may have reached its peak, and the output is in a seasonal decline trend, so the supply pressure is expected to decrease. As of October 15, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 35.8%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous statistical period, with a significant increase in the East China region. It is expected that as major refineries enter seasonal maintenance, the refinery operating rate may decline, and attention should be paid to whether the inflection point will be earlier than expected [14][22]. - Demand: As of October 17, the weekly shipment volume of domestic asphalt was 39.3 tons, a decrease of 10.3 tons from the previous statistical date. Due to terminal rush - work and pre - holiday stockpiling, the weekly shipment volume of asphalt increased before the National Day holiday, but as demand enters the off - season, the shipment volume is under pressure to decline. As of October 17, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt was 12.6%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points from the previous week, and it is expected to face downward pressure in the fourth quarter [23][26]. - Inventory: As of October 17, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 72.7 tons, an increase of 3.7 tons from the previous week, with large increases in North China and East China. Cold and rainy weather in the north has hindered terminal construction, and factory inventory shipments are not smooth. As downstream demand enters the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation increases. As of October 17, the social inventory of domestic asphalt was 105.1 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons from the previous week, continuing the inventory - reduction trend since August, but the reduction speed has slowed down [34][39]. - Price Difference: As of October 17, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing dilution was - 349.1 yuan/ton, up 160.6 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic asphalt basis was 338 yuan/ton, and as of October 15, the asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio was 55.75 [48]. 5. Future Market Judgment - The current fundamentals provide limited support for the market. As downstream demand enters the off - season and there are high production plans, the weakening of asphalt fundamentals may suppress prices. Crude oil factors are generally bearish, and the cost - side support for asphalt weakens. The market is expected to remain weakly volatile. It is recommended to focus on the BU2601 contract in the range of 3050 - 3200 yuan/ton and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. [50]
沥青周度报告-20251017
Zhong Hang Qi Huo·2025-10-17 10:04