贵金属策略报告-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals continued their upward trend, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.84% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 2.93% [1]. - The short - term core logic includes increased short - term hedging demand due to the escalation of trade wars and the US government shutdown, and the increasing risk of stagflation in the US economy with weak employment and moderate inflation, leading to the realization of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - The escalation of Trump's trade war and the US government shutdown have increased market uncertainty, enhancing the hedging attribute of precious metals [1]. - Fed Chairman Powell hinted that officials might stop shrinking the balance sheet in the coming months, and Fed Governor Waller warned of a possible negative turn in US employment growth. The Fed's Beige Book showed little change in US economic activity recently but signs of cooling consumption. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and hinted at further cuts. The market expects a 25 - basis - point cut in October with a probability of around 90% and about 2 more cuts this year [1]. - The 1 - month implied lease rate of London silver has soared, indicating a tight silver spot market. The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - Precious metals are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - Due to the US government shutdown, the release times of retail sales, PPI and other data are postponed [1]. - Gold price trends are the anchor for silver price trends. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible silver inventory has slightly decreased [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - Data Summary: - International Prices: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4224.90 per ounce, up 1.57% from the previous day and 4.05% from the previous week; London gold closed at $4204.60 per ounce, up 1.90% from the previous day and 4.07% from the previous week [2]. - Domestic Prices: The main Shanghai gold contract closed at 999.80 yuan per gram, up 3.45% from the previous day and 10.90% from the previous week; gold T + D closed at 995.90 yuan per gram, up 2.96% from the previous day and 10.93% from the previous week [2]. - Basis, Spreads, and Ratios: The difference between the main Shanghai gold contract and London gold was 27.72 yuan per gram, up 97% from the previous day and - 183% from the previous week; the main Shanghai gold contract basis was - 3.90 yuan per gram; the gold - to - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) was 79.30, down 0.25% from the previous day and 2.43% from the previous week; the gold - to - copper ratio (Comex gold/Comex copper) was 8.45, up 4.25% from the previous day and 5.98% from the previous week; the gold - to - oil ratio (Comex gold/WTI crude oil) was 72.11, up 3.25% from the previous day and 10.17% from the previous week [2]. - Positions: Comex gold positions were 528,789 lots (100 ounces per lot); the main Shanghai gold contract positions were 222,192 lots (kilograms per lot), down 1.32% from the previous day and 6.85% from the previous week; gold TD positions were 254,996 lots (kilograms per lot), up 2.20% from the previous day and 11.18% from the previous week [2]. - Inventory: LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons; Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, down 1.08% from the previous week; Shanghai gold (SHFE) inventory was 18 tons, up 1.57% from the previous day and 1.32% from the previous week [2]. - CFTC Managed Fund Net Positions: Asset management institutions' weekly positions were 158,616 lots, down 1,867 lots from the previous week [2]. - Gold ETF: SPDR gold ETF holdings were 952.53 tons, down 0.33% from the previous week [2]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: The number of registered Shanghai gold warehouse receipts was 18 tons, up 0.38% from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. - Data Summary: - International Prices: Comex silver's main contract closed at $53.43 per ounce, up 1.72% from the previous day and 12.12% from the previous week; London silver closed at $53.02 per ounce, up 0.83% from the previous day and 6.67% from the previous week [5]. - Domestic Prices: The main Shanghai silver contract closed at 12,249 yuan per kilogram, up 1.93% from the previous day and 10.53% from the previous week; silver T + D closed at 12,228 yuan per kilogram, up 2.06% from the previous day and 10.57% from the previous week [5]. - Basis and Spreads: The difference between the main Shanghai silver contract and London silver was 98.89 yuan per gram, down 395.86% from the previous day and 131.49% from the previous week; the main Shanghai silver contract basis was - 21 yuan per kilogram [5]. - Positions: Comex silver positions were 165,805 lots (5,000 ounces per lot); the main Shanghai silver contract positions were 7,067,430 lots (kilograms per lot), up 0.60% from the previous day and 2.40% from the previous week; silver TD positions were 3,623,146 lots (kilograms per lot), down 1.80% from the previous day and up 14.78% from the previous week [5]. - Inventory: LBMA silver inventory was 24,581 tons, down 0.26% from the previous week; Comex silver inventory was 15,928 tons, down 1.97% from the previous week; Shanghai silver (SHFE) inventory was 982 tons, down 17.24% from the previous week; silver (SGE) inventory was 1,108 tons; the total visible inventory was 42,538 tons, down 0.58% from the previous day and 1.32% from the previous week [5]. - CFTC Managed Fund Net Positions: Asset management institutions' weekly positions were 40,065 lots, up 1,937 lots from the previous week [5]. - Silver ETF: iShare silver ETF holdings were 15,422.61 tons, down 0.19% from the previous week [5]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: The number of registered Shanghai silver warehouse receipts was 1,169,061 kilograms, down 1.95% from the previous week [5]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - Fed - related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 4.25%, the discount rate was 4.25%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) was 4.15%, all down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value; the Fed's total assets were $6,641.668 billion, up $4.268 billion from the previous week [7]. - US Economic Indicators: M2 year - on - year growth was 4.77%, down 0.06 percentage points; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.29%, down 1.29% from the previous day and the previous week; the US dollar index was 98.34, down 0.35% from the previous day and 0.50% from the previous week; various interest rate spreads and inflation - related indicators showed different changes [7][8]. - US Economic Growth and Labor Market: GDP annualized year - on - year growth was 2.00%, down 0.30 percentage points; GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth was 3.80%, up 4.40 percentage points; the unemployment rate was 4.30%, up 0.10 percentage points; non - farm payrolls monthly change was 2.20 million, down 0.57 million; labor participation rate was 62.40%, down 0.30 percentage points; average hourly wage growth was 3.70%, down 0.20 percentage points; other labor - market - related data also had corresponding changes [7]. - US Real Estate and Consumption: The NAHB housing market index was 37.00, up 15.63% from the previous week; existing home sales were 4 million units, down 0.25% from the previous week; new home sales were 660,000 units, up 15.15% from the previous week; retail sales year - on - year growth was 3.76%, down 0.26 percentage points; personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth was 5.55%, up 0.37 percentage points; other related data also showed different trends [7][8]. - US Industrial and Trade: Industrial production index year - on - year growth was 0.87%, down 0.39 percentage points; durable goods new orders were $76.706 billion, up $4.70 billion; exports year - on - year growth was - 27.03%, up 6.09 percentage points; imports year - on - year growth was - 16.11%, down 0.07 percentage points; the trade balance was - $78.3 billion [7][8]. - Central Bank Gold Reserves and Other Data: China's gold reserves were 2,303.52 tons, up 0.14% from the previous week; the US gold reserves were 8,133.46 tons; global gold reserves were 36,268.07 tons; the US dollar's share in IMF foreign exchange reserves was 57.80%, up 0.88%; the geopolitical risk index was 259.24, up 57.54% from the previous week; the VIX index was 28.34, up 30.84% from the previous week; the CRB commodity index was 293.61, down 1.91% from the previous week; the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.1277, down 0.05% from the previous week [8]. 3.4 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The report provides the Fed's latest interest - rate expectations based on the CME FedWatch tool, showing the probabilities of different interest - rate ranges at various future meeting dates from 2025/10/29 to 2027/9/15 [10].