Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-17 10:00Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract dropped with a weekly decline of about 1.53%. Brazilian sugar production increased in mid - late September 2025, but the decline in the sugar - making ratio eased market concerns. However, due to overall production increase, the rebound of raw sugar prices was weak. Domestic spot prices continued to fall, demand was in a seasonal decline, and the sugar sales progress was expected to slow down. The futures price was gradually supported by cost and was expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the release of September imported sugar data. It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract in the short term. Future factors to watch include domestic production and sales and new - season production estimates [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - Market Review: The price of the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract decreased by about 1.53% this week [5] - Market Outlook: In mid - late September 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 40.86 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 5.18%, and produced 3.14 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 10.76%. The sugar - making ratio was 51.17%, higher than 47.73% in the same period last year. Domestic spot prices dropped, demand was seasonally weak, and sugar sales were expected to slow down. The futures price was supported by cost and was expected to fluctuate [5] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract in the short term [6] - Future Focus: Domestic production and sales, new - season production estimates [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: The price of the ICE US sugar March contract dropped by about 1.35% this week. As of September 23, 2025, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 125,628 lots, an increase of 19,284 lots from the previous week. The long position was 173,035 lots, a decrease of 2,211 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 298,663 lots, an increase of 17,073 lots from the previous week. The price of the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract decreased by about 1.53% this week. The net position of the top 20 in the Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 73,648 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 8,418 lots. The spread between the Zhengzhou sugar futures 1 - 5 contracts was + 35 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis was + 378 yuan/ton [13][20][30] - Spot Market: As of October 17, the price of Liuzhou sugar in Guangxi was 5,810 yuan/ton, Nanning sugar in Guangxi was 5,790 yuan/ton, and Kunming sugar in Yunnan was 5,820 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,427 yuan/ton, an increase of 57 yuan/ton from the previous week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 37 yuan/ton, an increase of 47 yuan/ton from the previous week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,198 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from the previous week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan/ton from the previous week [34][40] 3.3 Industry Chain - Supply Side: As of the end of September 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45%. In August 2025, China's sugar imports were 830,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15% and a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 2.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.15% [43][46][50] - Demand Side: As of the end of August 2025, the total sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. The cumulative sugar sales were 9.9998 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1388 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 89.59%, a year - on - year increase of 0.65 percentage points. In August 2025, China's monthly production of refined sugar was 454,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.3%, and the monthly production of soft drinks was 17.7578 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5% [54][58] 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Options Market: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for white sugar this week is presented in the report, but no specific data is mentioned [59] - Stock Market: The report shows the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry, but no specific analysis or data conclusions are provided [63]