菜籽类市场周报：需求端支撑不足，菜粕继续下跌-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed oil, the futures prices dropped from high levels this week, with the 01 contract closing at 9,861 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous week. The harvest of Canadian rapeseed is nearly complete, and the expected high - yield exerts pressure on its price. Indonesia's plan to increase biodiesel to B50 in the second half of next year benefits the palm oil market, but Malaysia's palm oil inventory has been rising for seven consecutive months. In China, the preliminary ruling on anti - dumping policies for Canadian rapeseed is out, and the supply of imported rapeseed is expected to tighten structurally in the fourth quarter, supporting rapeseed oil prices. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage limit rapeseed oil demand to mainly rigid needs. The market should continue to monitor China - Canada trade policies [8]. - For rapeseed meal, the futures prices fluctuated and declined this week, with the 01 contract closing at 2,306 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton from the previous week. Favorable weather in the US Midwest promotes soybean harvesting, and the expected high - yield of US soybeans restrains its price. Although the US soybean crushing volume has increased significantly, the lack of data due to the US government shutdown makes the market cautious. In China, the China - Canada trade negotiation has no substantial progress, and the import of Canadian rapeseed will be restricted in the fourth quarter, with relatively low supply pressure. But as the temperature drops, the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture weakens, and the abundant supply of soybeans and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal reduce the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The market should continue to pay attention to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Rapeseed Oil Strategy: Monitor the support level of the 60 - day moving average and mainly participate in the long - term in a bullish manner [7]. - Rapeseed Meal Strategy: Participate mainly in the short - term [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position: This week, rapeseed oil futures dropped from high levels, with a total open interest of 281,371 lots, a decrease of 32,617 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures continued to decline, with a total open interest of 367,868 lots, a decrease of 3,840 lots from last week [17]. - Top 20 Net Positions: This week, the top 20 net long positions in rapeseed oil futures decreased from +15,954 to +11,597, while the top 20 net short positions in rapeseed meal futures increased from - 63,260 to - 93,955 [23]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 7,590 lots, and those of rapeseed meal are 7,702 lots [27]. - Spot Price and Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,160 yuan/ton, slightly lower than last week, and the basis between the active contract futures price and the Jiangsu spot price is +299 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal price in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2,410 yuan/ton, lower than last week, and the basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active contract futures price is +104 yuan/ton [36][42]. - Futures Monthly Spread: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is +386 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal is +30 yuan/ton, both at medium levels compared to the same period in previous years [50]. - Futures - Spot Ratio: The ratio of the 01 contracts of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is 4.276, and the average spot price ratio is 4.05 [53]. - Price Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals: The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,605 yuan/ton, and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 553 yuan/ton, both narrowing this week. The 01 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 562 yuan/ton, and the spot spread as of Thursday is 470 yuan/ton [62][68]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - Rapeseed Supply: As of October 10, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 50,000 tons. The estimated arrivals of rapeseed in October, November, and December 2025 are 150,000 tons, 450,000 tons, and 505,000 tons respectively. As of October 16, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed is +1,291 yuan/ton. As of the 41st week of 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills is 600 tons, an increase of 400 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 1.47%. In August 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed is 246,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 348,000 tons (58.52%) and a month - on - month increase of 70,600 tons [73][77][81][85]. - Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand: As of the end of the 41st week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil in China is 629,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons (0.41%) from last week. In August 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil is 140,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons (16.67%) and a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons. As of August 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.506 million tons, and the monthly catering revenue is 449.57 billion yuan. As of the end of the 41st week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil in China is 51,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (2.87%) from last week [90][94][98]. - Rapeseed Meal Supply and Demand: As of the end of the 41st week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal in China is 10,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons (41.67%) from last week. In August 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal is 213,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9,600 tons (4.72%) and a month - on - month increase of 30,300 tons. As of August 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed is 2.9272 million tons [102][106][110]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of October 17, this week, rapeseed meal continued to decline, and the corresponding option implied volatility was 20.69%, a 0.69% increase from 20% last week, slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [113]. 3.5 Representative Enterprise - The report mentions the price - earnings ratio change of Daodaoquan, but no specific data analysis is provided [115]