氧化铝行业利润持续收窄，谨慎看待下方空间铝锭或进入去库阶段，沪铝及铝合金震荡偏强运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina prices are expected to remain under pressure and weaken. However, as the current price is close to the cost line, caution is advised regarding the downside space. Attention should be paid to various emergencies at the Guinea mine end [16][162][165]. - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - term under the influence of macro - sentiment. A long - position approach is recommended [17][163][165]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - term. A bullish approach is recommended [18][164][165]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Macro and Important News: In September, the year - on - year decline of PPI continued to narrow, and the year - on - year increase of core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months. Recently, the CBK in Guinea had an indefinite general strike, halting production and transportation [8]. - Spot Market: As of October 17, the average domestic alumina spot price was 2,921.2 yuan/ton, down 43.5 yuan/ton from October 10. The average price of aluminum (A00) in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market was 20,950 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from October 10 [11][29][63]. - Supply Side: As of October 16, the national alumina weekly operating rate was 82.56%, a slight decrease. In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output was 3.6148 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.14% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%. As of the end of September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.84 million tons, and the operating capacity was 44.06 million tons [11][33][60]. - Demand Side: As of October 16, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.5%, unchanged from the previous week. In August, the PMI composite index of the aluminum processing industry reached 53.3%, rising above the boom - bust line [11][73]. - Cost and Profit: As of October 16, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,846 yuan/ton, a decrease. The average profit of the alumina industry narrowed to around 80 yuan/ton. As of October 17, the smelting cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was about 16,171 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit remained above 4,700 yuan/ton [12][37][58]. - Inventory: As of October 16, the aluminum ingot inventory was 627,000 tons, a decrease, and the aluminum rod inventory was 148,000 tons, an increase. As of October 17, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased [12][77][82]. - Market Trends: This week, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all oscillated weakly. Looking forward, alumina prices are expected to remain under pressure, while aluminum and aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - term [15][16][17] 3.2 Alumina Fundamental Analysis - Spot: The domestic alumina spot price continued to decline this week, and the spot premium narrowed [29]. - Supply: The weekly operating rate of alumina decreased slightly. In September, the output of Chinese metallurgical - grade alumina increased year - on - year and month - on - month [33]. - Import and Export: The alumina import window remained open, increasing the supply pressure on the domestic market [34]. - Cost and Profit: The cost and price of alumina decreased, and the industry profit continued to narrow [37]. - Inventory: The alumina port inventory was at a low level, and the social inventory continued to accumulate [44][45]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - Cost: Coal and pre - baked anode prices increased, but the electrolytic aluminum smelting cost decreased due to the continuous decline in alumina cost [50][55][58]. - Supply: The supply capacity of primary aluminum remained at a high level. In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month [60]. - Spot: The aluminum spot price decreased this week [63]. - Price and Premium: Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly with a spot discount, while LME aluminum oscillated strongly with a spot premium [69]. - Demand: The weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises remained stable, and the PMI composite index of the aluminum processing industry in August rose above the boom - bust line [73]. - Inventory: Aluminum ingots showed signs of destocking this week, and the aluminum water ratio rose to 76% in September [77]. - Futures Inventory: The SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased [82]. - Import and Export: The profit window for aluminum ingot imports was closed, and the year - on - year decline in aluminum product exports continued [86][95]. - Terminal Demand: The real estate market was slowly recovering, and the performance of new energy vehicles was relatively bright [97][103]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Analysis - Raw Materials: The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the price of scrap aluminum was strong. The price difference between refined and scrap aluminum varied in different regions [110][111][114]. - Cost and Price: The cost of ADC12 aluminum alloy was affected by scrap aluminum, silicon, and copper. The spot price of ADC12 varied in different regions [118][124]. - Import and Export and Supply: The import profit of overseas ADC12 was affected by price differences. The production of ADC12 and the import and export volume of aluminum alloy had their own trends [128][135]. - Demand: The demand for cast aluminum alloy was mainly from the automotive industry, with obvious seasonal characteristics [139][142][149]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy and the factory inventory of sample enterprises of recycled aluminum alloy had their own changes [151]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum alloy showed different situations [155]. 3.5 Outlook for the Future - Macro Factors: In the next week, domestic LPR data will be released, and the 18th meeting of the 14th NPC Standing Committee will be held. Overseas, the US September CPI data will be announced. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - sentiment on aluminum prices [162]. - Alumina: With the weakening of the rainy - season impact in Guinea, the decline in alumina cost may further reduce the bottom support. The social inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is expected to remain under pressure [162]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The market is certain about the Fed's October interest rate cut, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" is approaching. The aluminum price has upward driving force, but the high industry profit may limit further price increases [163]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The strong aluminum price will drive the aluminum alloy price up, and the demand for aluminum alloy will be supported by the automotive industry in the fourth quarter [164].