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Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Cautiously bearish [3] - PX: Neutral [4] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [5] Core Views - PTA supply and demand are nearly balanced, with expected inventory accumulation pressure, lacking drivers, and being significantly affected by crude oil costs and macro - tariff changes, and is short - term bearish [3]. - PX maintains a dynamic balance, with stable PXN. Short - term costs and macro factors are bearish, so it is short - term bearish [4]. - Ethylene glycol is priced based on expectations. A significant price drop is unlikely to lead to supply clearance, and it remains short - term bearish [5]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - Overall Situation: PTA supply devices are under planned maintenance, polyester load is high, and it is balanced from September to October. It has low valuation, lacks drivers, and short - term follows crude oil fluctuations [46]. - Device Changes: In October, many devices are under maintenance. For example, Hengli Dalian 1 was under planned maintenance on the 9th, YS New Materials reduced its load to 50 - 60% on the 7th and restarted on the 13th. YS Hainan, Dahua, and Zhongtai are under maintenance. Sichuan Energy Investment plans to have a two - week maintenance in late October. In November, Dushan, Ineos, and Honggang have maintenance plans [36][37]. - Inventory: As of October 10, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased to 217 tons, up 3.8 tons, and the market basis is weakly stable [38]. - Balance Sheet: From September to October, supply and demand are balanced, and there is inventory accumulation pressure starting from November. It has low valuation, is greatly affected by crude oil and macro factors, and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [46]. - Downstream Demand: After the holiday, the polyester start - up rate was 91.5%, remaining at a high level. The start - up rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces rebounded to 81%, 69%, and 78% respectively. After - holiday orders have poor sustainability [46]. - Seat Net Position: The net short position of foreign - funded futures company seats continues to increase [47]. PX - Overall Situation: PX maintains a dynamic balance in the fourth quarter, with supply expected to increase and demand being average. PXN remains around $220, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [71]. - Device Changes: Domestic PX load is 87.4%, and Asian load is 79.9%, both being relatively high. Domestically, Tianjin Petrochemical restarted, Daxie increased its load, and Wushi Petrochemical plans a two - week maintenance on October 14. In Asia, Malaysia Aromatics and Hanwha's 1.13 million - ton device restarted, Idemitsu's 260,000 - ton device is under maintenance. Taiwan FCFC's 720,000 - ton device plans a two - week maintenance, and Saudi Arabia plans a two - week maintenance in late October [67]. - Balance Sheet: PX maintains balance in the fourth quarter, with average expectations, lacking drivers, and short - term following oil price fluctuations [71]. - Price Difference: The spread between PX outer and inner markets narrows, the 11 - January spread of PX weakens, and TA01 processing fee remains stable at a low level [72]. - Industrial Chain Spread: The industrial chain profit weakens slightly. The PTA - crude oil spread is at a low level, PXN rebounds slightly, and PTA processing fee remains low [75]. Ethylene Glycol - Overall Situation: Ethylene glycol supply is under planned maintenance, demand load is high, the current situation is okay, but inventory accumulates after the holiday, and the expectation is poor. A significant price drop is unlikely to lead to supply feedback, and it is short - term bearish [119]. - Device Changes: The overall load is at a high level of 75%, and the syngas load is 78.8%. CNOOC Shell plans a one - week maintenance, Satellite restarts. Fulaian and Shenghong plan maintenance in late October. Yulong's 900,000 - ton device had a short - term shutdown during the holiday. In coal - chemical industry, Tianye and Shenhua Yulin restarted, Jianyuan and Meijin are under maintenance, and Tianying is expected to shut down until next year. Overseas, Shell in the US and Canada is under maintenance, Taiwan Nanya's 360,000 - ton device is under maintenance, Singapore Aster is under maintenance, and Petronas is shut down [88][104][119]. - Inventory: As of October 13, the inventory in East China's main ports is about 541,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34,000 tons. It is in the process of rising from a historically low level. The arrival volume is high, and the pick - up is average, so inventory is accumulating [116]. - Balance Sheet: The pressure on loose balance from September to October is not large, but inventory accumulates rapidly starting from November. The market trades based on expectations, lacks drivers, and is short - term bearish [119]. - Profit: Ethylene glycol profit is compressed. Oil - based production remains in loss, and coal - based production has limited loss [92]. - Downstream Inventory: Polyester factories' ethylene glycol raw material inventory days are 12.8 days (+0.3), and downstream inventory slightly increases [112].