紫金天风期货：氧氧氧氧氧

Group 1: Report's Core View - The current market is repeating the logic from March to May: oversupply drives down spot prices, leading to enterprise production cuts, spot shortages, and price increases that will drive a complete reversal in the market. However, the production cut-off line is uncertain. Currently, the cost is lower than in the first half of the year, and factories are still profitable, so there are no production cuts. Alumina production capacity will continue to drive output growth, and the oversupply will continue to expand [4]. Group 2: Domestic Alumina Balance Sheet - Total Supply: Ranges from 676.94 to 765.21 million tons from January to August 2025, with fluctuations [4]. - Total Production: Varies from 693.50 to 773.82 million tons during the same period, showing an overall upward trend [4]. - Imports: Fluctuate between 1.07 and 12.59 million tons, with an expected increase in the next two months but still maintaining a net export status [4][12]. - Exports: Range from 17.10 to 29.67 million tons, with relatively stable export volumes [4]. - Total Consumption: Ranges from 642.87 to 722.77 million tons, showing a steady growth trend [4]. - Excess Quantity: Fluctuates from -11.02 to 51.52 million tons, indicating periods of oversupply and shortage [4]. - Year-on-Year Production Growth: Ranges from -0.10% to 12.85%, with significant growth in some months [4]. - Year-on-Year Consumption Growth: Ranges from 0.19% to 3.80%, showing relatively stable consumption growth [4]. Group 3: Spot Market - Domestic Spot Prices: Continue to decline. As of Monday this week, the average prices in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, and Guizhou are 2907, 2920, 2858, and 3133 yuan/ton respectively, with varying degrees of decline [12]. - Overseas Spot Prices: Slightly increased during the National Day holiday and then declined in sync with the domestic market. As of Monday this week, the FOB price in Western Australia is 323 US dollars/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [12]. - Import Profit and Loss: As of last Friday, the import profit and loss of alumina is 76.35 yuan/ton, remaining profitable since early September [12]. Group 4: Futures Market - Futures Price Trends: The price of the main alumina futures contract first rose and then fell this week. It opened at 2898 yuan/ton last Monday and closed at 2820 yuan/ton this Monday, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.79% [15]. - Futures Market Structure: The current C structure of the futures market is stable [15]. Group 5: Cost - Imported Bauxite Prices: The average CIF price of imported Guinea bauxite is 73 US dollars/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.5 US dollars/ton. The average CIF price of imported Australian bauxite is 70 US dollars/ton, remaining unchanged [20]. - Regional Costs: The fully taxed costs in various regions are estimated to be around 2700 - 3000 yuan/ton, lower than in the first half of the year [20]. Group 6: Supply Side - Weekly Production: As of last Friday, the weekly production of alumina is 186.3 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.3 million tons or 0.16% [30]. - Operating Capacity: As of last Friday, the operating capacity of alumina reaches 9855 million tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week and hitting a record high [30]. - New Investment Projects: There are no new alumina investment projects this year [30]. Group 7: Inventory - Total Inventory: As of last Friday, the total alumina inventory (including factory, in-transit, raw material, and port inventories) is 457.6 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 3.9 million tons [36]. - Inventory Changes: The factory inventories of alumina and raw material inventories of electrolytic aluminum plants decreased by about 1 million tons during the National Day holiday due to inventory adjustments [36].