甲醇产业风险管理日报-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, energy and chemical products are still considered as short - positions by funds. The long positions in the methanol 01 contract are mainly held by the industry, while the short positions are mainly held by foreign investors. The contract has been weak since the holiday due to high shipments from Iran in October, which exceeded market expectations and reduced the possibility of early gas restrictions. The short - term price range is 2250 - 2350, and it's advisable to buy a small bottom position at low prices [6]. - The restriction of methanol transport ships due to Sino - US trade has a short - term bullish impact on methanol, but mainly affects the unloading rhythm and ship return time in the long run. With the escalation of Sino - US trade, the market fear has increased, and the trading focus has shifted back to the macro - level [6]. - High supply persists, demand reaches a new high this year, but the inventory pressure remains unsolved [6]. - This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered and sufficient, and port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a historical percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. 3.2 Methanol Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about falling methanol prices, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short methanol futures (MA2601) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 2250 - 2350. They can also buy put options (MA2601P2250) to prevent sharp price drops and sell call options (MA2601C2350) to reduce capital costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 15 - 20 for put options and 45 - 60 for call options [3]. Procurement Management - When the procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, to prevent rising procurement costs, they can buy methanol futures (MA2601) at present to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2450 - 2550. They can also sell put options (MA2601P2300) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 20 - 25 [3].