原油周度报告-20251017

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint - Recent factors influencing crude oil are generally bearish. OPEC+ continuous production increase adds pressure on the supply side, and as refined oil consumption enters the off - season, the pressure of crude oil supply surplus gradually emerges. The easing of the Middle - East and Russia - Ukraine tensions reduces the geopolitical risk premium. Macro - level negatives increase the downward pressure on oil prices. Oil prices have fallen below the $60/barrel mark and are expected to continue a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $54 - $58/barrel [8][50]. Summary by Directory 1. Report Abstract - Market Focus: Sino - US trade tensions intensify; IEA monthly report raises supply growth expectations and lowers demand growth expectations; the US labor market remains stable but demand is weak according to the Fed's "Beige Book" [7]. - Key Data: US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending October 10 was 3.524 million barrels (expected 288,000 barrels, previous value 3.715 million barrels); EIA Cushing crude oil inventory was - 703,000 barrels (previous value - 763,000 barrels); EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 800,000 barrels (previous value 285,000 barrels) [7]. 2. Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish Factors: Geopolitical uncertainty [11]. - Bearish Factors: Sino - US trade friction and marginal weakening of fundamentals [11]. 3. Macro Analysis - Fed's Expected Rate Cut: Powell's speech indicates that the Fed may cut rates again in October due to weak employment. The market widely expects a rate cut in the October 28 - 29 meeting. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 97.3% [12]. - IEA's Supply - Demand Outlook: The IEA raises the 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels/day to 3 million barrels/day and lowers the demand growth forecast by 30,000 barrels/day to 710,000 barrels/day, maintaining the expectation of supply surplus [13]. - Geopolitical Situation: A cease - fire agreement in Gaza has been reached, but there are uncertainties in its implementation. The Russia - Ukraine conflict also has high uncertainty, and attacks on energy infrastructure may affect oil supply [14]. 4. Data Analysis - Supply Side: US crude oil production reached a new high of 13.636 million barrels/day for the week ending October 10. The number of US oil drilling rigs decreased to 418 from 422 [15][17]. - Demand Side: US refinery utilization rate was 85.7% for the week ending October 10. US crude oil and gasoline demand decreased. European 16 - country refinery utilization rate decreased. Chinese refineries showed a pattern of "main refineries falling and local refineries rising" [19][24][25]. - Inventory: US EIA crude oil inventory may reach a turning point and face inventory accumulation pressure. US Cushing and gasoline inventories decreased [42][46]. - Crack Spread: The US crude oil crack spread decreased slightly, indicating weakening downstream demand [47]. 5.后市研判 - Crude oil is expected to continue a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $54 - $58/barrel [50].