Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views of the Report - The copper price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade policies and upcoming important meetings. The mid - term strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged, while being vigilant against the impact of macro - risks [5][57] Summary by Directory 1. Report Summary - The US Federal Reserve's Beige Book shows that the overall economic activity has changed little recently. Overall consumer spending, especially retail spending, has declined slightly. Employment levels have remained basically stable, but demand for labor has weakened [5] - The US Senate voted to advance a Republican stop - gap funding bill. The market is concerned about the US government shutdown and its impact on economic data release [5] - The US economy shows signs of weakness, but the market has high expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Sino - US trade relations are unstable, which repeatedly triggers market concerns about demand [5] - In terms of fundamentals, copper concentrate processing fees remain low, and the tightness at the mine end persists. The production of refined copper has declined slightly, while social inventory has continued to accumulate [5] - The trading strategy is to buy on dips in the medium term, while being alert to macro - risks [5] 2. Multi - and Short - Focus Bullish Factors - Spot processing fees for copper concentrates remain low, and the tightness at the mine end persists [8] - The production of refined copper has declined slightly [8] - The market's expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in October has increased [8][9][10] Bearish Factors - Sino - US trade frictions have escalated, and there is uncertainty in the macro - market [8] - Domestic social inventory of refined copper has accumulated [8] 3. Data Analysis Copper Mine Supply - In the first half of 2025, the combined output of major global copper mining companies increased by only 1.28% year - on - year, falling short of expectations. The Grasberg mine's production is expected to decrease significantly in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026, and there have been multiple supply disruptions in other large copper mines in 2025, increasing market concerns about supply shortages [18] Copper Concentrate TC - As of the week of October 11, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 40.53 dollars per dry ton, up 0.06 dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The copper concentrate market shows intensified supply - demand game and continuous pressure on processing fees. Most participants believe that there will be no significant rebound in the short term [21] Electrolytic Copper Production - In September 2025, the actual domestic electrolytic copper production was 1.1498 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year increase of 14.48%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 10.1596 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.64%. In October, production is expected to continue to decline due to the peak of smelter maintenance, the impact of scrap copper policies, and reduced incentives for smelters to increase production [23] Scrap Copper Import - In August 2025, China's scrap copper imports were 179,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 1.5149 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The decline was due to import losses, extreme weather, and reduced overseas scrap copper exports [27] Copper Plate and Strip Production - In September 2025, the domestic copper plate and strip production was 196,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35%, ending four consecutive months of decline, but still lower than the same period last year, with a year - on - year decrease of 8.7% [31] Copper Rod Production - In September 2025, the domestic refined copper rod production was 849,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.18%. The recycled copper rod production was 170,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04%. Although it was the traditional peak season, the overall demand was not strong [35] Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference - As of October 16, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around 470 yuan per ton, which has expanded, being unfavorable for refined copper consumption [39] Copper Inventory - LME copper inventory has continued to decline, with the latest level at 137,450 tons. SHFE copper inventory increased by 15.4% to 109,690 tons in the week of October 10. COMEX copper inventory has continued to accumulate, reaching a new high since January 2004 at 344,652 tons. As of October 16, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 183,100 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons from the 13th [51] Copper Spot Premium - On October 16, the spot premium of Shanghai Wumaohui 1 copper was around 35 yuan per ton, with an expanding premium. The LME 0 - 3 spot discount was around - 11.16 dollars per ton, with a narrowing discount [55] 4. Market Outlook - The copper price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and upcoming important meetings. The mid - term strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged, while being vigilant against the impact of macro - risks [57]
铜产业链周度报告-20251017
Zhong Hang Qi Huo·2025-10-17 11:05