中航期货橡胶周度报告-20251017

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The rubber market is under short - term pressure. The current fundamental contradictions of rubber are not prominent, but the reduction of weather interference during the peak tapping season may increase raw material supply pressure. Tariff disturbances, overseas economic conditions, and domestic economic recovery uncertainties lead to weak downstream demand expectations [6][26]. Section - by - Section Summary Report Summary (PART 01) - From October 15 - 21, 2025, rainfall in Southeast Asian natural rubber main producing areas changed compared to the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, rainfall in most areas was low, reducing the impact on tapping, while in the southern hemisphere, high - rainfall areas affected tapping in some regions [6]. - In September, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 17.1% and 14.9%. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.617 million and 1.604 million vehicles, with year - on - year growth of 23.7% and 24.6% [7]. - Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China, and then US Vice - President Vance sent some conciliatory signals. China and the US imposed port fees on each other's ships [7]. - The prices of natural rubber raw materials showed differentiation, and natural rubber continued to have a slight inventory reduction. The price of butadiene, the raw material for butadiene rubber, was weak, and the inventory of butadiene rubber was difficult to reduce. After the holiday, the overall tire production capacity utilization rate rebounded [6][7]. Multi - Empty Focus (PART 02) - Bullish factors: The inventory pressure of natural rubber is not obvious [10]. - Bearish factors: Reduced weather interference increases the expected supply of raw materials; the inventory of butadiene rubber is difficult to reduce; the intensification of Sino - US game and overseas uncertainties increase market risk aversion [10]. Data Analysis (PART 03) - Natural rubber raw material prices were differentiated. As of October 16, the price of Thai raw material glue was 54.1 baht/kg, and the cup - lump price was 50 baht/kg. The glue price in Yunnan was 13,500 yuan/ton, and in Hainan it was 12,900 yuan/ton. Rubber cost support was weak and stable [11]. - Natural rubber continued to have a slight inventory reduction. As of October 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1,080,481 tons, a decrease of 7,725 tons from the previous period [15]. - The price of butadiene, the raw material for butadiene rubber, was weak. As of October 15, the delivery price in the central Shandong region was around 8,520 - 8,630 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 8,250 - 8,300 yuan/ton. As of the week of October 17, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 203 yuan/ton [16]. - The inventory of butadiene rubber was difficult to reduce. As of the week of October 17, the production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 30,042 tons, an increase of 53 tons from the previous week. The in - factory inventory was 27,900 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons, and the trader inventory was 4,860 tons, an increase of 840 tons [19]. - After the holiday, the overall tire production capacity utilization rate rebounded. As of the week of October 17, the production capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a week - on - week increase of 22.43% and a year - on - year increase of 4.98%. The average inventory available days of sample enterprises was 39.95 days. The production capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a week - on - week increase of 28.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57%. The in - factory inventory available days of sample enterprises was 45.17 days [20]. - The price differences among the three major rubber contracts on the futures market showed differentiation. As of October 16, the 20 - standard rubber was stronger than natural rubber (RU), and the price difference of the "RU - NR" January contract narrowed. The price difference of the "NR - BR" main contract slightly strengthened [22]. 后市研判 (PART 04) - From a macro perspective, the intensification of Sino - US game, the US government shutdown, and political turmoil in European countries have led to strong market risk aversion, putting pressure on industrial products [26]. - From a fundamental perspective, the raw material price trend is differentiated, the cost support of rubber is weak and stable, the inventory of natural rubber continues to decline slightly, and the demand recovery is restricted by slow inventory reduction [26].