Report Information - Report Name: Urea Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 17, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The domestic urea fundamental valuation is low. Without further adjustment to the export policy, urea will continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. The short - term industry drive is weak. The mainstream domestic regional quotes have dropped significantly by 30 - 70 yuan/ton, with the North China mainstream quotes at 1470 - 1520 yuan/ton. The large - scale downstream compound fertilizer terminal pick - up during the holiday did not start as expected due to rainfall in major grain - producing areas, which hindered autumn harvest and sowing, leading to low fertilizer purchase demand and continuous price drops. The combination of fundamentals and macro - sentiment will keep urea weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to new export quotas and the impact of Sino - US trade conflicts [4]. - Urea exports have been confirmed. The urea futures are mainly priced by speculation, so it is expected to show a wide - range shock pattern with enhanced downside support [5]. - Domestic policies suppress the market. The association requires factories to sell urea at low prices, which has a negative impact on the spot sentiment [6]. Price and Volatility - Urea price range forecast (monthly): 1650 - 1950 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 27.16%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 62.1% - Methanol price range forecast (monthly): 2250 - 2500 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 20.01%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 51.2% - Polypropylene price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.56%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 42.2% - Plastic price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.24%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 78.5% [3] Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops: Short UR2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 1800 - 1950 yuan/ton; buy UR2601P1850 put options with a 50% hedging ratio; sell UR2601C1950 call options to reduce capital costs [3]. - For low purchase inventory and hope to buy according to orders: Buy UR2601 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 1650 - 1750 yuan/ton; sell UR2601P1650 put options with a 75% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3]. Purchase Management - For low purchase inventory and hope to buy according to orders: Buy UR2601 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 1650 - 1750 yuan/ton; sell UR2601P1650 put options with a 75% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3]
尿素产业风险管理日报-20251017
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-17 11:05