南华期货铁矿石周报：钢厂利润和宏观情绪承压，关注政策能否托底止跌-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term fundamentals and macro - sentiment of iron ore are under pressure. The focus on policy changes will be the key variable to break the downward trend. The market is looking forward to incremental stimulus policies during the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session and potential China - US talks. If fiscal or monetary easing measures are implemented, it is expected to improve demand expectations and boost iron ore prices [3][5][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Liberal Factors: Current hot metal production, though slightly down month - on - month, maintains year - on - year positive growth and is at a seasonal high, supporting the basic demand for iron ore. The current basis of iron ore has increased, and the valuation is relatively low. The expectation of incremental stimulus policies under weak demand has risen [4][6][10]. - Negative Factors: Sino - US trade frictions have led to a significant decline in market risk appetite. Iron ore shipments remain at a seasonal high, and port inventories are accumulating beyond the seasonal norm. Hot - rolled coil inventories are continuously accumulating beyond the seasonal level, with production still at a high level and overall demand momentum insufficient. Steel mill profits have dropped significantly, and the pressure of negative feedback from steel mill production cuts is constantly building up. The strong coking coal market is squeezing the space for iron ore [8][9][10]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Operate the iron ore 2601 contract within the range of [760, 810] [11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Inventory Management: For those with spot inventory worried about future price drops, directly short iron ore futures to lock in profits (I2511, short, 25%, entry range 800 - 810), and sell call options to collect premiums (I2511 - C - 850, 30%, sell at high prices). - Procurement Management: For those planning to purchase in the future and worried about price increases, directly go long on iron ore futures to lock in costs (I2511, long, 30%, entry range 750 - 760), and sell out - of - the - money put options. If the price falls below the strike price, hold long futures positions (I2511 - P - 790, 40%, sell at high prices) [13]. 3.1.4 Core Data - Black Industry Chain Cost - Profit Table: The iron water cost on October 17, 2025, was 2461.88 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 18.56 yuan/ton and a monthly increase of 19.86 yuan/ton. The blast furnace hot - rolled coil profit was - 46 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 65 yuan/ton and a monthly decrease of 85 yuan/ton. The blast furnace rebar profit was - 60 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 43 yuan/ton and a monthly decrease of 45 yuan/ton. The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, a weekly decrease of 0.87% and a monthly decrease of 3.46% [13][14]. - Iron Ore Weekly Shipment Data Table: The global iron ore shipment volume on October 10, 2025, was 3207.5 tons, a weekly decrease of 71.5 tons and a monthly decrease of 365.6 tons. The Australian and Brazilian shipment volume was 2666.5 tons, a weekly decrease of 60.9 tons and a monthly decrease of 184.3 tons [15]. - Iron Ore Demand Weekly Data Table: The daily average port clearance volume on October 17, 2025, was 315.72 tons, a weekly decrease of 11.28 tons and a monthly decrease of 15.56 tons. The daily average hot metal production was 240.95 tons, a weekly decrease of 0.59 tons and a monthly decrease of 0.07 tons [16]. - Iron Ore Inventory Weekly Data Table: The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports on October 17, 2025, was 14278.27 tons, a weekly increase of 253.77 tons and a monthly increase of 428.8 tons. The proportion of trade ore at 45 ports was 64.49%, a weekly decrease of 0.72% and a monthly decrease of 0.75% [17]. 3.2 Supply - Global Shipment Analysis: No specific summary data provided in the text, but there are multiple charts showing the seasonal and cumulative year - on - year changes in global iron ore shipments [17][18][19]. - Four Major Mines Shipment Analysis: Multiple charts show the seasonal, cumulative year - on - year, and over - seasonal changes in the shipments of the four major iron ore mines [24][25][26]. - Non - mainstream Mines Shipment Analysis: Multiple charts show the seasonal, cumulative year - on - year, and over - seasonal changes in non - mainstream mine shipments. The Platts iron ore price index leads non - mainstream shipments by about 5 weeks [28][31][37]. - Arrival and Port Congestion Analysis: Multiple charts show the seasonal, cumulative year - on - year changes in the arrival volume of 47 ports, the number of ships at ports, port congestion days, and actual arrival volume [37][38][41]. - Capsize Shipping Analysis: Multiple charts show the seasonal changes in the freight rates of capsize ships on different routes, the proportion of freight in iron ore prices, ship speeds, and global weekly sea - floating inventories [44][45][48]. - Domestic Ore Supply Analysis: Multiple charts show the seasonal changes in the daily average production of iron concentrate powder from 186 mining enterprises and the monthly production of iron concentrate powder from 433 mining enterprises in China [49][50][51]. 3.3 Demand Analysis - Hot Metal Analysis: Multiple charts show the seasonal, over - seasonal, and year - on - year changes in the daily average hot metal production of 247 steel enterprises in China, as well as the relationship between hot metal production and iron ore prices [54][55][56]. - Steel Mill Profit Analysis: Multiple charts show the production profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises, and the leading relationship between profits and the production of various steel products [57][58][59]. - Downstream Steel Analysis - Rebar: Multiple charts show the production, consumption, total inventory, short - process production, cost assessment, and price differences of rebar [72][73][74]. - Downstream Steel Analysis - Hot - rolled Coil: Multiple charts show the seasonal production, consumption, total inventory, and price differences of hot - rolled coils [80][81][82]. - Downstream Steel Analysis - Medium and Heavy Plate: Multiple charts show the production, consumption, and inventory - to - sales ratio of medium and heavy plates [83][84][85]. - Downstream Steel Analysis - Off - balance - sheet Steel: Multiple charts show the estimated seasonal production of off - balance - sheet steel, the combined inventory of on - and off - balance - sheet crude steel, and the production, inventory, and apparent demand of various steel products such as H - beams, angle steels, galvanized coils, etc. [88][89][90]. - Export Analysis: Multiple charts show the monthly production of special steel, the monthly export volume of steel, the port - out volume of steel, export orders, and the export profit of hot - rolled coils [110][111][115]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis - Port Inventory Analysis: Multiple charts show the seasonal changes in the inventory of 45 ports, the inventory structure of iron ore at ports, the over - seasonal changes in inventory compared with the past 5 years, the seasonal changes in the inventory of different types of iron ore (such as lump ore, iron concentrate powder, etc.), and the proportion of different types of iron ore in port inventory [116][117][118]. - Other Inventory Analysis: Multiple charts show the seasonal changes in the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel enterprises, the combined inventory of in - plant and in - transit iron ore in steel mills, the estimated seasonal inventory turnover days of iron ore [132][133]. 3.5 Valuation Analysis - Basis and Term Structure: The report provides a table of iron ore warehouse receipt prices, showing the basis and delivery profits of different iron ore varieties. It also shows the seasonal changes in the basis of different iron ore futures contracts and the term structure of iron ore futures [134][136][137]. - Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio and Hot - rolled Coil - Iron Ore Ratio: Multiple charts show the seasonal changes in the rebar - iron ore ratio and hot - rolled coil - iron ore ratio of different contracts [138][139][141]. - Coking Coal Ratio Analysis: Multiple charts show the seasonal changes in the price difference between coking coal and iron ore of different contracts, and the relationship between coking coal and iron ore prices [143][144][147]. - Scrap Steel Cost - effectiveness Analysis: Multiple charts show the price difference between iron and scrap steel, the cost - effectiveness of scrap steel, and the relationship between the scrap steel consumption ratio of pure blast furnace enterprises and the price difference between iron and scrap steel [148][149][150].