鸡蛋周报：节后需求尚可，蛋价稳中有增-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the egg market from aspects of spot, supply, cost, and demand, indicating that the egg market is currently in a state of high supply and low demand, with weak egg prices and reduced breeding profits. It is expected that in the short - term, without significant improvement, egg prices will remain weak, and suggests that previous short positions be closed for profit [5][10][13][17]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.82 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.05 yuan/jin, the same as last Friday. Due to continuous rainy days at the beginning of the week, market demand declined, inventory accumulated, and egg prices fell below the feed cost. After the weather improved, terminal replenishment was active, inventory decreased, and egg prices rebounded slightly. However, overall, egg prices were still weak [5]. - After the National Day, the demand in the egg - laying hen market weakened, the downstream consumption was insufficient, and the confidence of the breeding end in the future was insufficient. The price of old hens was under pressure to decline. As the price of old hens fell to a low point, the breeding end's reluctance to sell gradually emerged, and the price of old hens rebounded slightly at the end of the week [5]. 3.2 Supply Analysis - At the beginning of the week, affected by egg prices, the enthusiasm of each link to purchase was average, and the inventory in the producing areas was high. Later, as egg prices bottomed out, the breeding end was reluctant to sell at low prices, and the inventory decreased. The shipment volume in the main producing areas of national egg - laying hens showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. In the week of October 16, the slaughter volume of egg - laying hens in the main producing areas was 20.32 million, an increase of 2.8% from the previous week, and the average slaughter age was 499 days, the same as the previous week [10]. - In September, the inventory of laying hens in the country was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 6%, higher than expected. The monthly hatching volume of egg - laying hen chicks in sample enterprises in September was 39.2 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14%. Without considering delayed or concentrated slaughter, the estimated inventory of laying hens from October 2025 to January 2026 is approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [10]. 3.3 Cost Analysis - As of October 16, the corn price was around 2,271 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2,493 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.74 yuan/jin for eggs. This week, the average egg price continued to decline, and the breeding profit decreased month - on - month. As of October 17, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.3 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.29 yuan/jin from the previous week. On October 12, the expected profit of egg - laying hen breeding was - 0.51 yuan/feather, a decrease of 2.79 yuan/jin from the previous week [13]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - At the beginning of the week, after the National Day, affected by the weather, market sales decreased slightly. After egg prices bottomed out, the market's bargain - hunting sentiment increased, and sales increased. Currently, it is the off - season for consumption, and the low prices of substitutes weaken the positive support for egg demand. As of September 11, the egg sales volume in national representative sales areas was 7,374 tons, an increase of 2.7% compared with the previous week [16]. - After the National Day holiday, due to bad weather, transportation was restricted, and the inventory in each link was high. In the second half of the week, as the weather improved and egg prices rebounded, the inventory in the production and circulation links decreased month - on - month. As of October 17, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.05 days, a decrease of 0.45 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, a decrease of 0.23 days from the previous week [16]. - This week, the vegetable price index and pork price both rebounded slightly. On October 16, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 96.51, and as of October 15, the national average wholesale price of pork was about 15.33 yuan/kg, with little change from the previous week [16]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Trading logic: The inventory of laying hens on the supply side remains high, while the demand side is generally weak. It is expected that egg prices will be weak in the short - term, and the nearby contracts are likely to fluctuate weakly. - Unilateral: Close previous short positions for profit. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [17].