棉系周报：新棉收购进度加快，棉价震荡为主-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the international market, the macro - situation of the US cotton market shows no significant changes. With a high - quality rate at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years, the US cotton is expected to show a volatile trend. In the domestic market, as new cotton is being acquired and the acquisition price stabilizes while downstream demand remains unchanged, the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8][25]. - As new cotton is increasingly on the market, there will be selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The peak season demand on the demand side is general, with limited improvement, so its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [25][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market Analysis - US Cotton Market: With no obvious changes in the macro - situation and a high - quality rate at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years, the US cotton is expected to fluctuate [8]. - US Cotton Growth: As of October 10, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 269,100 tons, accounting for 8.6% of the estimated annual US cotton output, 27% slower year - on - year. The inspection progress of US upland cotton was 9.57%, 27% slower year - on - year, and the inspection of Pima cotton had not started. The weekly deliverable ratio was 69.2%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 80.6%, 7 percentage points higher year - on - year and 4 percentage points lower quarter - on - quarter [8]. - US Cotton Sales: As of the week of September 18, 2025, the weekly contract signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 19,500 tons, a 54% week - on - week decrease; the weekly shipment volume was 31,100 tons, a 14% week - on - week increase [8]. - CFTC Position: As of September 23, 2025, the net long position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 23.65% (a 0.34 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease) [8]. - Brazil: The 2024/25 annual cotton output in Brazil is expected to be 4.077 million tons, a 16,000 - ton increase from the previous month. The 2025/26 annual output is expected to be 4.031 million tons, a 46,000 - ton decrease year - on - year [8]. - Pakistan: As of September 30, 2025, the cumulative new cotton listing volume in Pakistan in the 2025/26 season reached 472,000 tons, a 49% year - on - year increase [8]. - Global: According to the latest September global cotton production and sales forecast by the USDA, the global cotton output in September was 25.62 million tons, a 230,000 - ton month - on - month increase; the total consumption was 25.68 million tons, an 184,000 - ton increase; the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - Supply Side: The domestic new cotton harvesting is in a high - incidence period. The harvesting progress in northern Xinjiang is nearly 80%, and about 30% in southern Xinjiang. The market speculates on the production reduction in southern Xinjiang, driving up the seed cotton price. As of October 16, 2025, the operating rate of national ginneries increased to 76.9%, a 62.5% increase from the previous week. As of October 15, 2025, the cumulative notarized inspection volume was 491,499 tons, a 113.21% year - on - year increase. As of October 10, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.1554 million tons, a 174,600 - ton (17.80%) increase from the previous week [25]. - Demand Side: As of October 16, 2025, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 65.6%, a 0.20% increase from the previous week. The yarn inventory of spinning mills decreased by 1% month - on - month [25]. 3.3 Option Strategy - Volatility Trend: The HV on the previous day was 8.4519, with a slight decrease in volatility. - Option Strategy Recommendation: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7661, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.8549. Both call and put trading volumes increased. It is recommended to wait and see [39]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: During the holiday, as new cotton is being acquired, the market focus shifts to the opening price of new cotton. With a high cotton output in Xinjiang and general acquisition enthusiasm of ginneries, there is no large - scale rush for acquisition. As new cotton is increasingly on the market, there will be selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The peak season demand is general, with limited improvement, so its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [42]. - Single - Side Trading: It is expected that the US cotton will mostly fluctuate in the future, and the Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to trade at an appropriate time [42]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [42]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - Mid - end Situation: Information on the operating load of pure - cotton yarn mills, the load of all - cotton grey fabric mills, yarn inventory days, and grey fabric inventory days is presented through historical data charts [49]. - Cotton Inventory: Data on national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mill industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory from 2015 to 2024 are provided [51]. - Futures - Spot Basis: Information on the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the average basis of US upland cotton in seven major markets, and the basis between the spot price of C32S cotton yarn and the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton yarn is presented through historical data charts [54].