聚酯产业风险管理日报：宏观压制下破位下跌，关注支撑位卖权机会-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental supply - demand of ethylene glycol has a marginal improvement, but the valuation is under pressure. The expectation of inventory accumulation suppresses the valuation, and the recent macro - impact will dominate the market trend. The overall unilateral trend has high uncertainty. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation makes ethylene glycol a short - position asset. However, the cash flow of coal - based marginal ethylene glycol plants has been compressed below the cost line, and there may be strong supply - side support at the 3700 level. In the short term, ethylene glycol will digest macro - negatives, with the expected price range shifting down to 3850 - 4250. In case of over - decline due to panic, one can consider selling EG2601 - P - 3850 when the price is above 50 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecasts are: ethylene glycol 3800 - 4300, PX 6000 - 6800, PTA 4250 - 4750, and bottle chips 5300 - 5900. The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 11.86%, 13.59%, 13.87%, and 11.18% respectively, and their 3 - year historical percentile volatilities are 11.9%, 32.3%, 23.9%, and 31.4% [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concern about ethylene glycol price decline, with a long spot position, one can short ethylene glycol futures (EG2601) at 4200 - 4300 with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, buy put options (EG2601P3850) and sell call options (EG2601C4250) with a 50% hedging ratio to prevent price drops and reduce capital costs [2]. Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory and hope to purchase according to orders, with a short spot position, one can buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2601) at 3900 - 4000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs. Sell put options (EG2601P3850) with a 75% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [2]. Core Contradiction - Ethylene glycol's supply - demand has marginal improvement, but the valuation is under pressure due to inventory accumulation expectations. Demand has a marginal improvement with winter orders, but the "weak peak season" expectation is hard to reverse. The near - end inventory is low, and the inventory accumulation before the end of October is limited. The macro - impact will dominate the market, and the long - term inventory accumulation expectation makes ethylene glycol a short - position asset. However, the cost - support at 3700 is expected if the valuation is further compressed. In the short term, it will digest macro - negatives, with the price range shifting down [3]. 利多解读 (Likely a typo for "Positive Factors Analysis") - The US adding port service fees to relevant Chinese ships since October 14, 2025, will increase the cost of ethane - based ethylene glycol, but the short - term impact on supply is limited. The rising price of thermal coal compresses the profit of coal - based marginal plants to below the cost line, strengthening the cost - support [6]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors Analysis) - The US's plan to impose a 100% new tariff on Chinese imports from November 1, announced on October 11, intensifies the Sino - US trade conflict, leading to a pessimistic macro - sentiment and a weak market [7]. Polyester Daily Report Table - It shows the prices, price differences, inventory levels, processing fees, and production - sales ratios of various polyester products on October 17, 2025, compared with previous dates, reflecting the market changes of the polyester industry [9][10].