聚乙烯风险管理日报-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The PE supply - demand pattern remains loose. Supply is increasing as multiple devices restarted in late September, and import volume is expected to rise in October - November. Demand recovery is slow, with low downstream order follow - up and weak restocking willingness. High inventory levels add to the pressure on prices. Considering various uncertainties, it's recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - Price Range Forecast: The monthly price range for polyethylene is predicted to be between 6800 - 7200 yuan. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 8.15%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 4.7% [3]. - Inventory Management Hedging: For high product inventory, to prevent price drops, it's recommended to short L2601 plastic futures at a 25% ratio with an entry range of 7150 - 7200 yuan and sell L2601C7200 call options at a 50% ratio with an entry range of 30 - 50 [3]. - Procurement Management Hedging: For low procurement inventory, to avoid price hikes, it's suggested to buy L2601 plastic futures at a 50% ratio with an entry range of 6800 - 6850 yuan and sell L2601P6700 put options at a 75% ratio with an entry range of 70 - 90 [3]. 3.2 Core Contradiction Analysis - Supply - Demand Situation: PE supply is increasing due to device restarts and expected import growth, while demand recovery is slow. High inventory levels are putting downward pressure on prices. Due to uncertainties such as trade policies and conferences, unilateral trading should be on hold [4]. 3.3 Factors Analysis - Positive Factors: The downstream demand is in the peak season, and a 50 - million - ton full - density device of Yulong stopped for about 5 days due to a fault [5]. - Negative Factors: New LDPE devices are expected to be put into production, device restarts have increased the operating rate, LLDPE inventory is high, and PE imports are expected to increase in October - November [7][9]. 3.4 Market Data Table - Futures Prices and Spreads: There were various changes in plastic futures prices, spreads, and basis compared to previous days and weeks [10]. - Spot Prices and Regional Spreads: Spot prices in different regions and regional spreads also showed changes [10]. - Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads: The spreads between non - standard and standard PE products had different changes [10]. - Upstream Prices and Processing Profits: Prices of upstream raw materials like crude oil, ethane, coal, and methanol changed, and processing profits of different PE production methods also fluctuated [10].