Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Globally, the increase in sugar production in major producing areas is being realized. Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a historically high level, and the fundamentals of raw sugar are weak. The main contract has fallen below the previous low, and the overall trend is expected to be weak. In the domestic market, the supply is mainly imported sugar, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the trend of the external market in the short term [5]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to short at high levels for single - side trading, and to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [5]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Market Situation and Strategy - International sugar prices have fallen below the previous low, with a weak overall trend. After a short - term sharp decline, a rebound and repair are expected. The domestic market is expected to be greatly affected by the external market in the short term and will also experience shock and repair. It is recommended to short at high levels for single - side trading, and to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - International Supply - Demand Pattern Change - Substantial Increase in Production in the 25/26 Crushing Season - The ISO predicts a supply gap of only 231,000 tons in the 2025/26 crushing season, a significant reduction compared to the 4.879 million tons in the 2024/25 season. Global sugar production is expected to reach 180.593 million tons, an increase of 5.419 million tons from the previous season, mainly due to production growth in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Global consumption is expected to reach 180.824 million tons, an increase of 771,000 tons. The global sugar trade volume is expected to remain stable, with an export volume of 63.89 million tons and an import demand of 63.768 million tons. The ending inventory/consumption ratio is expected to drop to 50.95%, about 10% lower than six crushing seasons ago [11]. - Czarnikow raises the forecast of the global sugar market surplus in the 2025/26 crushing season to 7.4 million tons, the highest surplus level since the 2017/18 season. The forecast of global sugar production is raised by 700,000 tons to 185.3 million tons, the second - highest production ever, and the consumption forecast is lowered by 600,000 tons to 177.8 million tons [11]. - Brazilian Sugar Production - Expected High - Level Production - According to CONAB data, Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 44.5 million tons. Based on the current bi - weekly sugar production, it may increase by about 1 million tons compared to 2024, reaching around 45.12 million tons [12]. - Seasonal Decline in the Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio in Central - Southern Brazil - In the second half of September, the sugar - making ratio in central - southern Brazil was 51.17%, significantly lower than the 53.49% in the first half of September. The sugar production was 3.137 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.76%, and the ethanol production was 2.213 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.50%. The average TRS was 157.48 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 1.78%, and the problem of low sugar content in sugarcane still exists [14]. - Year - on - Year Increase in Sugar Production in Central - Southern Brazil in This Crushing Season - As of the second half of September 2025/26, the cumulative sugar production in central - southern Brazil was 33.524 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.84%. The cumulative sugar - making ratio was 52.68%, much higher than 48.84% in the same period last year. The ethanol - to - sugar price in Brazil has dropped to 15.26 cents/pound, and due to the recent decline in crude oil prices, the ethanol price has also weakened [23]. - Significant Increase in Brazilian Sugar Inventory - As of the second half of September, the sugar inventory in central - southern Brazil was 11.7067 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.8%. In September, the sugar export volume was 3.2444 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.35%. From April to September in the 2025/26 crushing season, the cumulative sugar export volume was 17.737 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%, but still at a high level compared to previous years [24]. - Sugar Production in Other Countries - Thailand - In the 24/25 crushing season, Thailand's sugar production was 10.05 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons), and the export volume from January to August 2025 was 3.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.04 million tons. The 25/26 crushing season is expected to have a slight increase in production [27]. - India - In the 24/25 crushing season, India's sugar production was about 26.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. In July, the net sugar export was - 80,000 tons, and the domestic sugar sales quota in October was 2.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons [31][33]. - Domestic Market Situation - Sugar Mill Operations in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang - As of now, 11 sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and 13 sugar mills in Xinjiang have started operations in the 25/26 sugar - making season, and the remaining mills are expected to start soon [37]. - High Import Profit and Strong Import Expectations - The increase in import profit has led to strong import expectations [38]. - Continuous Increase in Imports with a Record - High in August - In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 62,700 tons. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 2.6121 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 121,000 tons or 4.86%. In July, the import volume of syrup and white sugar premix was 159,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons. The actual arrival of out - of - quota raw sugar in August was 489,400 tons, and the expected arrival in September was 304,300 tons [50]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking No specific summary content can be extracted from the given data. The data mainly includes various charts and graphs related to the sugar market, such as the cumulative sugar production, sugar - making ratio, and export volume in Brazil, as well as the import volume in China.
双周制糖比仍高，巴西糖产同比增加
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-17 11:39