苹果周报：优果率较为一般，果价稳中有涨-20251017

Report Title - Apple Weekly Report: The Rate of High - Quality Apples is Average, and Apple Prices are Rising Steadily [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Due to factors such as the uneven quality of new - season apples and the impact of weather on production areas, the price of high - quality apples is expected to be strong, and the price gap between high - quality and general - quality apples will widen. The futures price is expected to show a short - term shock - strengthening trend [7][16] Summary by Directory Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies Spot Analysis - In the western region, the supply of new - season late Fuji apples increased this week, with obvious price polarization. High - quality apples had strong prices, while the prices of general - quality apples were chaotic. In the Shandong region, affected by the weather, apples were waiting to color, with limited red apple supply. In the sales area, the trading atmosphere was average, and the restocking of second - and third - level wholesalers was weak [7] - In Shandong, the late Fuji apples were in the coloring stage, with limited red apple supply. The current transaction prices were 2 - 3 yuan per catty for general goods and 3.0 - 3.8 yuan per catty for better - quality general goods. In Shaanxi, the orders for late Fuji apples increased, with high - quality apples having stable and strong prices. The price of 70 and above semi - commercial apples in Luochuan was around 3.7 - 4.2 yuan per catty, and the ordering price was 3.5 - 4.3 yuan per catty [7] Supply Analysis - Cold - storage inventory statistics were suspended. As of October 9, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 6.79 tons. The 2024 - 2025 production season inventory ended, and the 2025 - 2026 production season was in the acquisition stage. It is expected that the national inventory statistics for 2025 will start from late October to early November [12] Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of early - morning arrivals decreased compared with last week. The sales of high - quality new - season late Fuji apples were okay, while the sales of general - quality apples were slow. The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits on October 16 was 7.01 yuan per kilogram, slightly lower than last Friday, and in the middle of the same period in recent years [15] - The market arrival volume this week was lower than the same period in previous years. The market was mainly supplied by Shaanxi, with tight overall supply. The overall sales situation was good, and the mainstream transaction price remained stable. Traders reported a large profit margin for the new - season apples [15] Trading Strategy - Trading logic: The late - maturing Fuji apples are expected to have a low rate of high - quality fruits, and the opening price is high. The cost of making futures warehouse receipts is high, so the futures price is expected to show a short - term shock - strengthening trend [16] - Unilateral: It is expected that apples will show a shock - strengthening trend in the short term due to the expected low rate of high - quality fruits [16] - Arbitrage: Buy in November and sell in January [16] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [16] Weekly Data Tracking Apple Supply and Demand - The document provides data on apple export volume, planting area, consumption, and production from 2018 - 2023, but no specific analysis content is given [20] Inventory and Shipment - It shows the trends of national cold - storage apple inventory, Shandong cold - storage inventory, Shaanxi cold - storage inventory, and national cold - storage apple shipment from 2016/17 - 2024/25, but no specific analysis content is given [23][24] Spread and Basis - It provides information on the current prices, previous - day prices, and price changes of futures contracts such as AP01, AP05, and AP10, as well as the basis and spread information between different contracts and spot prices [26] Spot Price - It provides the current prices, previous - day prices, and price changes of the Fuji apple price index, as well as the prices of apples in different producing areas such as Qixia and Penglai [27]