油脂产业风险管理日报-20251017

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The export of Malaysian palm oil is better than expected, the implementation of Indonesia's B40 plan is slow, the supply in the producing areas is generally tight, and the optimistic demand for B50 next year supports the quotes in the producing areas [2]. - The U.S. energy policy lacks clear guidance, and the U.S. government shutdown has led to high market volatility and strong uncertainty. Although the domestic oil inventory is at a high level, the demand in the fourth quarter provides support. Under the uncertain trade conditions between China, the U.S., and Canada, the raw material supply pressure is limited. The oil inventory is decreasing, and the downside space is limited. In the short - term, a volatile approach should be adopted for the strategy, and attention can be paid to the entry opportunities after the stabilization of palm oil [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean oil is 8000 - 8700 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.4%. For rapeseed oil, it is 9700 - 10500 yuan/ton, with a volatility of 10.4% and a historical percentile of 0.1%. For palm oil, it is 9000 - 9900 yuan/ton, with a volatility of 20.2% and a historical percentile of 24.1% [2]. Hedging Strategies - Trader Inventory Management: When the oil inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, traders can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 8600 - 8700 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - Refinery Procurement Management: When the procurement inventory is low and procurement is to be carried out according to orders, refineries can buy soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 8000 - 8100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. - Oil Mill Inventory Management: When there are concerns about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean oil sales prices, oil mills can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 8500 - 8600 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. Market Data Palm Oil - Palm oil 01 is at 9308 yuan/ton with a - 0.04% change, palm oil 05 is at 9264 yuan/ton with a 0.06% change, and palm oil 09 is at 8946 yuan/ton with a - 0.11% change. BMD palm oil主力 is at 4559 ringgit/ton with a 0.86% change. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 9210 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan increase, and the basis is - 122 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan decrease. POGO is at 522.239 dollars/ton with a - 1.168 - dollar decrease, and the international soybean - palm oil spread is 29.5 dollars/ton with a 24.62 - dollar increase [7][8]. Soybean Oil - Soybean oil 01 is at 8256 yuan/ton with a - 1.34% change, soybean oil 05 is at 8042 yuan/ton with a - 1.06% change, and soybean oil 09 is at 7946 yuan/ton with a - 0.7% change. CBOT soybean oil主力 is at 50.85 cents/pound with a 0.04% change. The price of Shandong first - grade soybean oil is 8500 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan increase, and the basis is 204 yuan/ton with a 26 - yuan increase. BOHO (weekly) is at 48.482 dollars/barrel with a - 13.5728 - dollar decrease, and the domestic first - grade soybean oil - 24 - degree palm oil spread is - 620 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase [14]. Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed oil 01 is at 9935 yuan/ton with no change, rapeseed oil 05 is at 9494 yuan/ton with no change, and rapeseed oil 09 is at 9402 yuan/ton with no change. ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month is at 636.5 Canadian dollars/ton with a 2.2 - Canadian - dollar increase. The price of East China rapeseed oil is 10120 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan decrease, and the basis is 235 yuan/ton with a 17 - yuan increase. Brent crude oil主力 is at 60.73 dollars/barrel with no change, and the domestic first - grade soybean oil - rapeseed oil spread is 1600 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan decrease [18]. Market News Bullish News - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15 is 606292 tons, a 49.8% increase compared to the same period last month [4]. - The U.S. NOPA's September soybean crushing volume was 197.863 million bushels, a 4.24% increase from the previous month and an 11.6% increase year - on - year, far exceeding market expectations [4]. - The Canadian canola export volume in the week ending October 12 increased by 97.8% to 159200 tons compared to the previous week [4]. Bearish News - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area is expected to be 18 million hectares, unchanged from the previous estimate and an 8.4% increase from the previous year. The 2025/26 planting area is expected to be 17.5 million hectares, a 2.8% decrease from the previous year [6]. - China has not completed most of its soybean procurement for December and January shipments due to high Brazilian soybean premiums [6]. - The sales pace of Argentine soybeans has slowed down. As of October 8, the pre - sales of 2024/25 soybeans reached 37.54 million tons, and the pre - sales of 2025/26 soybeans reached 3.11 million tons [6].