Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of pure benzene is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter due to postponed plant maintenance, the return of long - shut small plants, and import deals from Europe to China. However, downstream demand is weak, with a high probability of the peak season being uneventful this year, resulting in a persistent inventory build - up pattern. The price of domestic pure benzene is likely to fall rather than rise, which slows down imports. In early October, the export volume of Korean pure benzene to China decreased significantly, and some imported pure benzene faced difficulties in unloading, temporarily tightening the spot liquidity of pure benzene [3]. - For styrene, the supply is tightening as more plants are under maintenance and the return of Jingbo's styrene plant is uncertain. It is expected that the new production capacity will increase the supply in mid - to late October. The balance sheet shows that styrene will maintain a tight balance from October to November (if Jingbo's plant stops for a long time, styrene will enter a destocking pattern in the fourth quarter). However, high inventory and the drag from upstream pure benzene limit the upward price movement. In the short term, the market is affected by macro factors and follows the fluctuation of crude oil prices. It is expected to be volatile, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - Price Forecast: The monthly price range of pure benzene is predicted to be 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton, and that of styrene is 6400 - 7000 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile in the past three years is 85.8% [3]. - Hedging Strategies: - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short styrene futures (EB2511) with a 25% hedging ratio at 6600 - 6700 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (EB2511C6700) with a 50% ratio at 30 - 40 yuan to collect premiums and reduce capital costs [3]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy styrene futures (EB2511) with a 50% ratio at 6400 - 6450 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (EB2511P6500) with a 75% ratio at 90 - 110 yuan to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - Pure Benzene: The supply is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, while demand is weak, leading to a difficult - to - change inventory build - up pattern. Import is slowing down, and short - term spot liquidity is tightening [3]. - Styrene: Supply is tightening in the short term, and the market will maintain a tight balance from October to November. High inventory and the drag from pure benzene limit the upward price movement [3]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - In early October, the export volume of Korean pure benzene to China was 47,000 tons, a significant decrease. Some imported pure benzene faced unloading difficulties, temporarily tightening the spot liquidity of pure benzene [4]. - Several styrene plants, including Jingbo Sida Rui (670,000 tons/year), Anhui Jiaxi (350,000 tons/year), and Lianyungang Petrochemical (600,000 tons/year), are under maintenance, making it difficult to further compress the price spread between pure benzene and styrene [4]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Due to weak macro - sentiment and supply - demand fundamentals, the price of crude oil has been falling recently, weakening cost support and causing a collective decline in oil - related chemical products [7]. - As of October 13, 2025, the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 196,500 tons, a decrease of 5400 tons from the previous period, but the high inventory is still difficult to reduce [7]. - On October 10, 2025, the US President announced a 100% tariff on Chinese products starting from November 1 and export controls on all key software, putting pressure on terminal export demand [7]. - Two large - scale styrene plants in Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical are planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter [7]. 3.5 Basis and Price Spread Analysis - Basis: The daily changes in the basis of pure benzene and styrene are presented, showing different trends for various contracts [8]. - Price Spread: The price spreads within the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain, including spot - futures spreads and cross - product spreads, are analyzed, with most spreads showing downward trends [9]. 3.6 Industrial Chain Price - Pure Benzene: The prices of pure benzene in different markets and contracts are provided, along with production margins. The production margin of pure benzene increased by 19 yuan/ton to 366 yuan/ton on October 17, 2025 [10]. - Styrene: The prices of styrene in different regions and contracts are given, as well as its profits. The non - integrated profit of styrene decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 612.2397 yuan/ton on October 17, 2025 [11]. - Downstream Products: The prices and profits of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and EPS are also presented [11].
纯苯-苯乙烯风险管理日报-20251017
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-17 11:50