股指黄金周度报告-20251017

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, after repeated digestion of policy benefits, the stock index may adjust after continuous rise; the expectation of three interest rate cuts by the Fed this year has been fully digested, and with the official entry into force of the Gaza ceasefire agreement and the cooling of risk aversion, gold should be wary of adjustments caused by the emergence of profit-taking selling pressure. In the medium to long term, the valuation of the stock index is mainly dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, including the intensification of domestic counter - cyclical adjustment policies and the easing of international trade frictions, and the stock index is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. With the fading of concerns about the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the easing of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, and the full digestion of the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year, gold faces the risk of a deep adjustment [41]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - In September this year, the official manufacturing PMI rose for two consecutive months but remained in the contraction range. Industrial production accelerated further, and demand improved marginally. New loans and social financing scale increased, the year - on - year decline of CPI and PPI narrowed, and import and export growth accelerated [3]. Stock Index Fundamental Data Enterprise Profit - From January to August this year, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned positive year - on - year, and the growth rate of finished goods inventory continued to decline. However, due to weak terminal demand, downstream enterprises still faced great operating pressure, had difficulty passing on production costs to end - consumers, and had to actively reduce production and inventory [16]. Capital Situation - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose to 243.2575 billion yuan, reaching a new historical high. The central bank conducted 673.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 347.9 billion yuan [19]. Gold Fundamental Data Risk - Free Interest Rate: Holding Cost and Inflation Level - The US federal government has been in a shutdown, causing some economic data to be released late. There are differences within the Fed regarding future interest rate policies, and most officials support further interest rate cuts this year. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond has fallen below the 4% mark [26][27]. US Consumer Confidence Index and Employment Situation - Not provided Domestic and Foreign Gold Inventory Situation - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures have continued to soar, reflecting an increase in the demand for physical gold delivery and high market bullish sentiment [39]. Strategy Recommendation - Although domestic policy has continuously released positive signals, corporate profits have not significantly improved, and concerns about Sino - US trade tensions remain. The stock index may continue to adjust after a short - term rebound. With the repeated digestion of the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year and the easing of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, attention should be paid to the risk of a correction in gold after its rapid rise [40].