有色金属周度报告-20251017

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, alumina is expected to oscillate weakly, while Shanghai aluminum will oscillate at a high level. In the medium - to - long - term, with the resilience of terminal demand and positive macro - sentiment, they are expected to oscillate upward. For polysilicon, it will oscillate in a high - level range in the short - term due to policy influence. For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to policy - expectation guidance as production costs may rise. In the medium - to - long - term, the industry's over - supply situation remains, and the focus is on policy implementation and actual demand [48][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metal Price Movements - Most base metals' futures and spot prices declined this week, except for lithium carbonate (no change), polysilicon (futures up 6.89%, spot up 0.48%), and polycrystalline silicon (up 3.95% in futures). For example, copper futures fell 1.77%, and its spot price dropped 2.15%. Aluminum futures declined 0.40%, and its spot price decreased 0.14% [2]. Metal Inventory Changes - As of October 17, SHFE copper inventory was 11.02 million tons, up 0.05 million tons (+0.46%) from last week; LME copper inventory was 13.72 million tons, down 0.22 million tons (-1.58%). As of October 16, COMEX copper inventory was 34.47 million tons, up 0.52 million tons (+1.53%). For zinc, as of October 17, LME zinc inventory was 3.803 million tons, up 0.01 million tons (+0.21%), and SHFE zinc inventory was 6.73 million tons, up 0.67 million tons (+11.06%) [13][16][25]. Metal Supply - side Situations - Copper concentrate processing fees remained at a historical low, with the spot TC at - 40.70 dollars/ton as of October 16, and the tight supply expectation persisted. The lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) index rose 7 dollars/ton to 846 dollars/ton as of October 17. Zinc concentrate processing fees continued to rise. The national alumina weekly operating rate decreased slightly, and the operating capacity dropped by 94 million tons to 9108 million tons, but the supply surplus pressure remained [19][22][47]. Metal Demand - side Situations - In August, automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. New energy vehicle production and sales also had significant year - on - year growth, accounting for 48.8% of total vehicle sales. From January to August, real estate development showed declines in various indicators such as construction area, new - start area, and completion area. As of the end of August, the national cumulative power - generation installed capacity increased by 18.0% year - on - year, with solar and wind power having high growth rates [41][43][45]. Strategy Recommendations - For alumina, it will oscillate weakly in the short - term and may strengthen in the medium - to - long - term. For electrolytic aluminum, it will oscillate at a high level in the short - term, and may also strengthen in the medium - to - long - term. For polysilicon, it will oscillate in a high - level range in the short - term, and the industry's over - supply situation needs to be addressed in the medium - to - long - term. For industrial silicon, production costs may rise, and policy - expectation guidance should be followed [47][48][50].