PP日报：震荡运行-20251017

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that PP will experience a weak and volatile trend. The downstream demand is not meeting expectations, and there are concerns about economic growth. Additionally, the lack of practical anti - involution policies in the PP industry and the over - capacity issue will impact future market conditions [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Sections Market Analysis - PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85%, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The plastic weaving开工率 remained flat at 44.26%, with slightly fewer orders than last year [1]. - On October 17, new maintenance devices such as Tianjin Bohua's single - line were added, causing the PP enterprise开工率 to drop to around 82%, a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard grade drawstring rose to around 27% [1][4]. - The inventory accumulation during the National Day holiday was similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4]. - The cost of crude oil decreased due to the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, OPEC+'s planned production increase in November, and the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions [1]. - New production capacities have been put into operation, and there are more maintenance devices recently. Although the downstream is entering the peak season, the demand is not as expected, and the post - National Day restocking demand has weakened [1]. - Sino - US mutual collection of special port fees for ships has intensified concerns about economic growth, and the lack of practical anti - involution policies in the PP industry will affect future market trends [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2601 contract decreased in an oscillatory manner with a decline of 0.71%, closing at 6551 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 233 lots to 661751 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PP spot prices in different regions remained stable, with drawstring prices ranging from 6410 - 6610 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On October 17, new maintenance devices led to a drop in the PP enterprise开工率 to around 82% [4]. - Demand: The PP downstream开工率 increased slightly, but the plastic weaving orders decreased slightly compared to last year [1][4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical inventory after the National Day holiday was at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Raw Materials: Brent crude oil December contract dropped to 61 dollars/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at 775 dollars/ton [5].