PVC日报：震荡运行-20251017

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that PVC will experience weak and volatile trends in the near term due to factors such as a weakening cost - end, high social inventory, upcoming completion of equipment maintenance at companies like Inner Mongolia Junzheng, average spot trading, and high - level futures warehouse receipts [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [行情分析] - Upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region are stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 5.94 percentage points to 76.69% but remains at a relatively high level in recent years. After the National Day holiday, downstream PVC recovery was significant, but the downstream operating rate is still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [1]. - India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, has lowered its November quotation by $30 - 40 per ton. India announced an increase in anti - dumping duties on imported PVC from mainland China by about $50 per ton on August 14, weakening China's PVC export expectations in the fourth quarter. However, export orders have not weakened significantly after the recent decline in export prices [1]. - As of the week of October 16, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.24% to 1.0338 million tons, 33.52% higher than the same period last year. Although inventory has slightly decreased, it remains high [1][7]. - From January to August 2025, the real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion. The weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities continued to decline and is near the lowest level in recent years, indicating that real estate improvement requires time [1][6]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. New production capacities have been put into operation, including Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year capacity in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton/year capacity expected to be stably produced by the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton/year capacity in early September, and Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 - ton/year capacities operating at low loads after trial production [1][5]. - Six departments have jointly issued a work plan for stable growth in the building materials industry, but no actual policies have been implemented in the PVC industry. Anti - involution and the elimination of old - fashioned devices are macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1]. [期现行情] - In the futures market, the PVC2601 contract oscillated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 4,675 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,729 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4,688 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a 0.45% increase and a decrease in open interest by 56,022 lots to 1,212,927 lots [2]. - On October 17, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4,630 yuan/ton. The closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,694 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 58 yuan/ton, strengthening by 36 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a moderately low level [3][4]. [基本面跟踪] - Supply side: Companies such as Shandong Xinfeng, Lutai Chemical, and Inner Mongolia Junzheng have entered equipment maintenance. The PVC operating rate decreased by 5.94 percentage points to 76.69%, but it remains at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities have been put into operation as mentioned above [5]. - Demand side: The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to August 2025, national real estate development investment was 603.09 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 573.04 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; the sales volume was 550.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%. New construction area decreased by 19.5% year - on - year, and completion area decreased by 17.0% year - on - year. As of the week of October 12, the trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.44% week - on - week and is near the lowest level in recent years [6]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 16, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.24% to 1.0338 million tons, 33.52% higher than the same period last year. Although inventory has slightly decreased, it remains high [7].