Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The supply - demand situation of crude oil is weak. It is recommended to mainly treat it as a weak and volatile market, and pay attention to the progress of the Sino - US trade war [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries decided to further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which will exacerbate the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The next meeting will be held on November 2nd [1]. - The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories has exceeded expectations, the decrease in refined oil inventories has exceeded expectations, and the overall oil product inventory has increased. US refineries have entered the autumn maintenance season, and the refinery operating rate has decreased by 6.7 percentage points [1]. - After the discount of Russian crude oil widened, India continued to import Russian crude oil. Trump said that Modi promised that India would not buy oil from Russia, but this would take a process [1]. - The European Commission passed a new draft of sanctions against Russia, including sanctions on shadow tankers and setting the crude oil price cap at $47.6 per barrel. The EU spokesperson said that the European Commission would propose a plan to increase the tariff on Russian oil imports [1]. - Due to Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russia would extend the export ban on diesel and gasoline until the end of the year. Currently, Russia's crude oil export volume remains high [1]. - EIA's latest monthly report predicts that the global oil inventory will increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, and the IEA monthly report predicts that the global oil surplus will intensify [1]. - Trump will meet with Putin in Budapest, and the geopolitical risk has cooled down. The United States, Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar signed a cease - fire agreement in Gaza to end the war [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2512 contract, fell 2.38% to 435.0 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 433.0 yuan per ton and a maximum price of 445.6 yuan per ton. The trading volume increased by 4,638 to 40,343 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, raises the US crude oil production in 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day, and raises the average Brent crude oil price in 2025 from $67.80 per barrel to $68.64 per barrel. It also expects the Brent crude oil price to fall to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and maintains the average Brent crude oil price in 2026 at $51.43 per barrel [3]. - OPEC raises the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day and maintains the global oil demand growth rate in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - IEA lowers the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, maintains the global oil demand growth rate in 2026 at 699,000 barrels per day, raises the global oil supply growth rate in 2025 by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day, and raises the global oil supply growth rate in 2026 by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day [3]. Inventory and Production Data - On the morning of October 17, EIA data showed that for the week ending October 10 in the US, crude oil inventories increased by 3.524 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 288,000 barrels and 3.45% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories decreased by 267,000 barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 75,000 barrels. Refined oil inventories decreased by 4.529 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 294,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 703,000 barrels [4]. - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in July was adjusted down by 73,000 barrels per day to 27.47 million barrels per day, and its production in August 2025 increased by 478,000 barrels per day to 27.948 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the production increases in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE [4]. - US crude oil production increased by 124,000 barrels per day to 13.629 million barrels per day in the week of October 3, and is currently 200 barrels per day lower than the historical high set in early December last year, but it is the highest since the week of December 6, 2024 [4]. Demand Data - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.669 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.85% compared with the same period last year, and the margin of being higher than the same period last year has slightly increased [5]. - Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 5.20% to 8.455 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.713 million barrels per day, a decrease of 3.19% compared with the same period last year [5]. - Diesel weekly demand decreased by 2.60% to 4.233 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.984 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.19% compared with the same period last year [5]. - The week - on - week decline in both gasoline and diesel demand led to a 11.48% week - on - week decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [7].
原油日报：原油震荡运行-20251017
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-10-17 12:18