三大油脂周度报告-20251017

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Palm oil is expected to fluctuate widely and continue the oscillating trend next week [34]. - Medium - to long - term: Palm oil is currently in the third wave of an uptrend on the weekly chart, and its center of gravity is expected to move up in the medium - to long - term [35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oils Futures and Spot Prices - From October 10 to October 17, 2025, the futures prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil all declined, with weekly declines of 1.38%, 1.99%, and 0.55% respectively. The spot prices also decreased, with weekly declines of 1.28%, 1.12%, and 0.59% respectively [4]. Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of October 17, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 196 yuan/ton (an increase of 6 yuan/ton from the previous week), 286 yuan/ton (an increase of 79 yuan/ton), and 74 yuan/ton (an increase of 8 yuan/ton) respectively. The YP spread was - 1052 yuan/ton (an increase of 84 yuan/ton from the previous week) [10]. Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of October 10, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 60,000 tons (a decrease of 16,700 tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 547,600 tons, the national soybean oil mill inventory was 1,265,100 tons, and the total inventory of the three major oils was 1,872,700 tons [13]. Supply - side Analysis - Palm oil: MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of September increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons, and Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory in July 2025 increased by 1.5% to 2.568 million tons [19]. - Soybean oil: As of October 10, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 10.092 million tons, the major oil mill soybean inventory was 7.6576 million tons, and the oil mill operating rate was 57%. As of October 16, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 608.30 yuan/ton (an increase of 7.1 yuan/ton from the previous week) [22]. - Rapeseed oil: As of October 10, 2025, the oil mill rapeseed inventory was 50,000 tons, the same as the previous week. As of October 17, 2025, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 2066.40 yuan/ton (a decrease of 94.20 yuan/ton from the previous week) [25]. Demand - side Analysis - On October 16, 2025, the trading volume of major palm oil mills was 0 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 6,200 tons, and the POGO spread was 478.99 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 14.25 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil was 8.05 million tons [31]. Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The US government shutdown led to a lack of official data guidance in the market; Canada's foreign minister will visit China this week, and Sino - Canadian relations may ease [32]. - Foreign factors: As of October 12, the US soybean harvest progress reached 58%, higher than 39% a week ago. The expected soybean good - to - excellent rate remained at 61%, the same as a week ago. The US soybean crushing volume in September 2025 was 197.863 million bushels, higher than the market expectation of 186.34 million bushels. The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of September increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons, the production in September decreased by 0.73% month - on - month to 1.84 million tons, and the export volume increased by 7.69% month - on - month to 1.43 million tons [32]. - Import and crushing: The oil mill operating rate was 57%, the soybean inventory was 7.6576 million tons, and the oil mill rapeseed inventory was 50,000 tons, the same as the previous week [32]. - Inventory: As of October 10, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 60,000 tons, the palm oil mill commercial inventory was 547,600 tons, and the national soybean oil mill inventory was 1,265,100 tons [32]. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils declined resonantly. The decline of palm oil spot price was 1.28%, that of soybean oil was 0.59%, and that of rapeseed oil was 1.12% [32]. Strategy Recommendation - This week, palm oil futures closed down 1.38%. The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of September increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons, far higher than the market expectation of 2.15 million tons. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15%. Considering that Malaysian palm oil is about to enter the production - reduction cycle and Indonesia's B50 policy will be implemented, there is still support from the origin in the medium - to long - term [33]. Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - The focus includes the US biodiesel policy, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations, high - frequency Malaysian palm oil data, and weather [36]