Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 17, 2025, the restart of Yulong Petrochemical's overhauled units led to a rise in the plastic operating rate to around 88%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%, with the agricultural film entering the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The cost - end oil price dropped due to factors such as the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas and OPEC+'s planned production increase in November. Considering the supply increase, insufficient demand, and other factors, it is expected that plastics will experience weak and volatile trends in the near future [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The restart of Yulong Petrochemical's overhauled units on October 17 increased the plastic operating rate to around 88%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%. The agricultural film entered the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The cost - end oil price dropped, and factors such as Sino - US trade frictions and the lack of actual anti - involution policies in the plastic industry suggest that plastics will likely experience weak and volatile trends in the near future [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2601 contract decreased in position, fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 6855 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6936 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6874 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.48%. The position decreased by 1233 lots to 565412 lots [2] - Spot: Most of the PE spot market declined, with a price change range of - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6790 - 7470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8940 - 9930 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7290 - 8090 yuan/ton [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On October 17, the restart of Yulong Petrochemical's overhauled units increased the plastic operating rate to around 88%, which is at a neutral level [1][4] - Demand: As of the week of October 17, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%. The agricultural film entered the peak season, but compared with previous years, the orders and raw material inventory of the agricultural film were still low, and the orders for packaging film decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - Inventory: During the National Day holiday, the petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons. On Friday, the petrochemical inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 770,000 tons, 45,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the National Day this year is similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil December contract dropped to $61 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $780 per ton, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $785 per ton [4]
塑料日报：震荡运行-20251017
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-10-17 12:17