黑色系周度报告-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Medium to long - term: Trade conflicts have intensified, and market sentiment is weak. Most black commodities showed weak performance this week. For rebar, supply decreased while demand increased, but the fundamental improvement was not obvious, and the main contract was under pressure from the 5 - day moving average. Although the daily average hot metal output continued to decline, it remained above 2.4 million tons, providing support to the iron ore demand side, while the supply side tended to be loose, and industrial negative feedback intensified. For glass, the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" fell short of expectations, the weak demand pattern was hard to change, the operating rate increased, and enterprise inventories accumulated, with the main contract dropping significantly on Friday. For soda ash, factory inventories accumulated, downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, the oversupply situation continued, and the main contract maintained a weak and volatile trend [63][67]. - Short - term: After the holiday, the recovery of the demand side fell short of expectations, the inventory reduction speed was slow, and the overall fundamental improvement was limited. The main contracts of the black series were mainly in a weak and volatile trend. This week, glass and soda ash continued to operate weakly. Attention should be paid to the recovery of the demand side during the peak season and the policy signal orientation of subsequent important meetings [64][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Black Series Weekly Market Review - Rebar (RB2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 3103.0 on October 10, 2025, to 3037.0 on October 17, 2025, a decrease of 66.0 or 2.1%. The spot price was 3200.0, and the basis (unconverted) was 163.0 [3]. - Hot - rolled coil (HC2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 3285.0 to 3204.0, a decrease of 81.0 or 2.5%. The spot price was 3270.0, and the basis was 66.0 [3]. - Iron ore (I2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 795.0 to 771.0, a decrease of 24.0 or 3.0%. The spot price was 788.0, and the basis was 17.0 [3]. - Coke (J2601): The closing price of the futures main contract increased from 1666.5 to 1676.0, an increase of 9.5 or 0.6%. The spot price was 1620.0, and the basis was - 56.0 [3]. - Coking coal (JM2601): The closing price of the futures main contract increased from 1161.0 to 1179.0, an increase of 18.0 or 1.6%. The spot price was 1350.0, and the basis was 171.0 [3]. - Glass (FG601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1207.0 to 1095.0, a decrease of 112.0 or 9.3%. The spot price was 1270.0, and the basis was 175.0 [3]. - Soda ash (SA601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1240.0 to 1209.0, a decrease of 31.0 or 2.5%. The spot price was 1271.3, and the basis was 62.3 [3]. Rebar - Profit: On October 16, the rebar blast furnace profit was - 60 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply side: As of October 17, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate was 84.27% (unchanged), the daily average hot metal output was 2.4095 million tons (a decrease of 0.59), and the rebar output was 2011600 tons (a decrease of 22400) [12]. - Demand side: In the week of October 17, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.1975 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 737400 tons. As of October 16, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 101819 tons [17]. - Inventory: In the week of October 17, the social inventory of rebar was 4.5641 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 108900 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.8464 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77000 tons [22]. Iron Ore - Supply side: In the week of October 10, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.2075 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71500 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in the country was 3.1441 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 368300 tons [27]. - Inventory: In the week of October 17, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 14.96187 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 320000 tons; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 8.98273 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63460 tons [30]. - Demand side: In the week of October 17, the average daily port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 3293200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 122200 tons. As of October 16, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 120700 tons [35]. Float Glass - Supply side: In the week of October 17, the number of operating float glass production lines was 226, a week - on - week increase of 1; the weekly output was 1128925 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate was 80.63% (unchanged), and the operating rate was 76.35% (unchanged) [38]. - Inventory: In the week of October 17, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 64.2756 million weight boxes, an increase of 1.4516 million weight boxes compared with October 10. The number of days of available in - plant inventory was 27.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 days [43]. - Demand side: As of September 30, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 11 days [47]. Soda Ash - Supply side: In the week of October 17, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.93%, a decrease of 3.48 percentage points compared with the previous week; the output was 740500 tons, a decrease of 30300 tons compared with the previous week [51]. - Factory inventory: As of October 17, the factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7005 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40700 tons [56]. - Production and sales rate: As of October 17, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 94.5%, a week - on - week increase of 2.07 percentage points [60].