能化板块周度报告-20251017

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the polyester sector, short - term supply and demand drivers are insufficient, the cost center moves down, and the sector continues its weak pattern. In the long - term, it is under pressure due to cost decline, expected supply increase, and weak demand [29]. - For methanol, in the short - term, it shows range - bound fluctuations with price volatility risks. In the long - term, it may rebound if the signals are positive [47][48]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Sector Macro and Crude Oil Information - India may stop buying Russian oil, which could reconfigure global trade flows and tighten supply. The US and Russia will hold a meeting, and the IEA predicts an increase in global oil supply in 2025 and 2026 with weak demand. US economic data release is postponed, and economic activity shows some weakness [5]. - US refined product demand has mixed changes compared to last year. As of October 10, the average daily demand for total refined products is 2066.9 million barrels, down 0.5% from last year [6]. - US crude oil production hits a new high. As of October 10, daily production is 1363.6 million barrels, up 7000 barrels from the previous week and 13.6 million barrels from last year. Commercial crude inventory increases, while gasoline and distillate inventories change differently [7]. Polyester Product Prices and Basis - Prices of polyester products such as polyester bottle chips, short - fibers, and polyester filaments decline week - on - week. Basis values also show various changes [9]. PX Supply - Urumqi Petrochemical's 100 - million - ton device is under maintenance, and domestic PX production and capacity utilization decline slightly. Asian PX load rebounds slightly. Next week, PX supply is expected to decline slightly [12]. PTA Supply - Hengli Petrochemical reduces production, and Yisheng New Materials increases load. This week, PTA supply decreases slightly, and social inventory is reduced. Next week, supply is expected to increase slightly [15]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - This week, domestic ethylene glycol supply decreases slightly. Port inventory accumulates, but next week, the accumulation pace may slow down due to reduced arrivals and increased demand [16]. Polyester End - The average weekly polyester start - up rate is 87.78%, down 0.02 percentage points week - on - week [17]. Polyester Inventory - Short - fiber inventory decreases, while long - filament inventory accumulates significantly [21]. Terminal Demand - Orders increase slightly, the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom start - up rate is stable, and the peak season is not prominent [25]. Methanol Sector Methanol Price and Basis - Futures and spot prices of methanol change. The basis of MA2601 increases, and downstream product prices also show different trends [31]. Methanol Cost and Profit - This week, coal - based and coke - oven gas - based profits narrow slightly, and natural gas - based losses improve slightly. Olefin profits decline significantly, and traditional downstream profits are squeezed [37]. Methanol Supply - As of October 16, methanol start - up rate is 87.42%, down 2.11 percentage points, and production is 198.36 million tons, down 2.36% from the previous period. This week, more devices are under maintenance than those returning [40]. Methanol Demand - MTO start - up rate remains stable at 94%, and traditional downstream products show mixed performance with most at low levels [43]. Methanol Inventory - As of October 15, port inventory is 149.14 million tons, down 3.36%, and inland inventory is 35.99 million tons, up 6.04%. Port inventory decreases due to unloading issues and MTO support, while inland inventory accumulates [46].