10月经济展望：投资下方有底，转机或在明年

Investment Trends - The core contradiction in investment this year is a significant decline in "expansion" investment, which has decreased by 40 percentage points compared to the end of last year, dropping from 33.6% to -6.2% in the first eight months of this year[10] - "New construction" investment has a larger weight (estimated at about 70%) and is projected to show a small increase, reflecting changes in the real estate sector[7] - The total amount of "two重" funds from special long-term bonds is estimated at 700 billion yuan, accounting for 1.4 percentage points of the total fixed asset investment of over 50 trillion yuan in 2023[19] Economic Outlook - The expected support from special long-term bonds in 2024 and 2025 is likely to exceed this year's impact, alleviating growth pressure on expansion investments[7] - The decline in investment is not necessarily negative; it reflects a more rational allocation of resources and the ongoing transition between old and new growth drivers[23] - The overall investment growth rate is expected to stabilize, with a potential slight negative growth this year, but a rebound is anticipated next year[7] Risks and Challenges - Risks include the potential for export growth to exceed expectations due to year-end demand, geopolitical tensions affecting global industrial patterns, and the impact of "anti-involution" policies on domestic demand[43] - Data calculation errors may affect the accuracy of conclusions drawn from investment statistics, particularly in fixed asset investment[43]