2025年9月财政数据快评：财政发力支撑经济了吗？

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first three quarters, the national general public budget revenue reached CNY 163,876 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%[2] - Tax revenue amounted to CNY 132,664 billion, growing by 0.7% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue decreased by 0.4% to CNY 31,212 billion[2] - Total expenditure for the first three quarters was CNY 208,064 billion, up 3.1% year-on-year, with central government expenditure increasing by 7.3% to CNY 31,008 billion and local government expenditure rising by 2.4% to CNY 177,056 billion[2] Monthly Trends - In September, general public budget revenue increased by 2.6% year-on-year, up from 2% in the previous month, with tax revenue showing a significant rise of 8.7% compared to 3.4% previously[3] - Non-tax revenue in September fell sharply by 11.4%, worsening from a decline of 3.8% in the prior month[3] - General public expenditure in September also improved, growing by 3.1% year-on-year, compared to just 0.8% in August[3] Fiscal Policy and Economic Impact - The fiscal policy strength index indicates a continued decline in fiscal policy effectiveness, despite a rebound in major tax categories, suggesting potential economic recovery[25] - The government plans to utilize CNY 500 billion in policy financial tools and CNY 500 billion in local debt limits to stimulate the economy in Q4[26] - The total local debt limit is expected to shrink to less than CNY 800 billion by year-end, following the recent allocation of CNY 5 trillion for local government financial support[26] Budget Completion Status - As of September, the completion rate for general public budget revenue was 7.1%, higher than the same period in the previous two years[6] - Cumulative general public expenditure growth was 3.1%, below the budget target of 4.4%, necessitating a quarterly increase of approximately 7.4% in Q4 to meet the annual goal[14]