南华期货碳酸锂产业周报：需求超预期，部分商家捂货惜售-20251018

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market showed a volatile and strengthening trend this week, in line with previous expectations. Looking ahead to the next month, the core driving logic for lithium carbonate futures prices will focus on factors such as the resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo mine at the end of October, the pressure of concentrated warehouse receipt cancellations in November, and unexpectedly high downstream demand [1]. - Considering multiple factors on both the supply and demand sides, it is expected that lithium carbonate futures prices will fluctuate within the range of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, showing a slightly upward trend [1]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply side: The release of salt lake production capacity will increase lithium salt supply. If the resumption of production at "Jianxiaowo" exceeds market expectations, it will directly expand the supply scale [1]. - Demand side: Current downstream demand is unexpectedly high, and some merchants are reluctant to sell. By the end of the year, downstream lithium battery material enterprises' demand is expected to maintain a month - on - month growth trend, which is expected to drive the spot procurement demand for lithium salts and support futures prices [1]. - Near - term trading logic (before early November): It includes factors such as a significant reduction in warehouse receipts for a week, the pressure of concentrated warehouse receipt cancellations in November, unexpectedly high downstream demand in October, and a continuous decline in lithium ore inventory [5]. - Long - term trading logic (after early November): It involves the resumption progress of the Ningde Jianxiaowo lithium mine in November, the progress of seven lithium mines in Jiangxi, downstream production schedules in November, and the impact of relevant policies on the new energy industry [4][6]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Volatile and strengthening. - Price range: Volatile range: 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton; Low - level range: 70,000 - 73,000 yuan/ton; High - level range: 80,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton. - Strategies: Unilateral strategy: Buy long positions in LC2512 and LC2601 at low - level ranges; Basis strategy: Positive arbitrage; Spread strategy: Positive arbitrage for LC2601 - LC2605; Option strategy: Sell LC2512 - P - 70000 options and buy LC2601 - C - 80000 [7]. 1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Recommendations - Lithium battery enterprises' risk management strategies: Different strategies are proposed for procurement management, sales management, and inventory management, including the use of futures and options, with corresponding hedging ratios and recommended entry intervals [8]. Chapter 2: Market Information 2.1 This Week's Main Information - Positive information: Projects such as the partial production of the Badar 10GWh lithium iron phosphate battery cell and intelligent energy storage system project and the shipment of the first batch of qualified products from Guizhou Phosphate Group's 50,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate device [9]. - Negative information: The cancellation of the Jilin Lewei Zhihui Kashi region's 100MW/400MWh independent energy storage power station project and the shipment of 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate from Hainan Mining's Mali Buguni lithium mine [11]. 2.2 Next Week's Main Information - Important events and data announcements include the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, China's total retail sales of consumer goods, and the unemployment rate [12]. Chapter 3: Futures and Price Data 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Futures trends: This week, lithium carbonate futures prices showed a volatile and strengthening trend. The weighted index contract closed at 75,754 yuan/ton on Friday, with a week - on - week increase of 3.87%. The trading volume was about 755,100 lots, a week - on - week increase of 69.50%. The open interest was about 705,700 lots, an increase of 24,000 lots week - on - week. The number of warehouse receipts was 30,600 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 11,900 lots [17]. - Option situation: The 20 - day historical volatility has been continuously decreasing, and the implied volatility of at - the - money options has also decreased, indicating that market participants' expectations of future price fluctuations have cooled. The option open interest PCR shows that the overall market sentiment is bullish [19]. - Capital trends: The current open interest shows a slight weakening sign, with no obvious trend. - Spread structure: The current term structure of lithium carbonate futures shows a contango structure. In the short term, there is a possibility of a temporary back structure, but in the long term, the term structure is likely to return to and maintain a contango structure [24][25]. - Basis structure: This week, the basis of the lithium carbonate main contract weakened significantly. Historically, there is a relatively high probability that the basis will strengthen after the holiday at the current basis level [31]. 3.2 Spot Price Data - The report provides price data for various products in the lithium battery industry chain, including lithium ore, lithium salts, downstream materials, and terminal products, along with their weekly and monthly price changes [33][34]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Due to strong market demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary batteries recently, the production and operation of enterprises in the lithium battery industry chain, from upstream lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide to downstream cathode material manufacturers, have improved, and overall profits show signs of marginal strengthening [35]. 4.2 Import and Export Profits - This week, the price of lithium carbonate remained stable, and import profits showed a marginal stabilizing trend. Meanwhile, export profits of lithium hydroxide also increased [38]. Chapter 5: Fundamental Situation 5.1 Lithium Ore Supply - Domestic mine production: Data on the production of sample pyroxene mines and lithium mica mines in China are presented [40][41]. - Overseas mine imports: Information on lithium concentrate imports by country is provided [43]. - Lithium ore inventory: Domestic lithium ore inventory has decreased this week, including the total available inventory, inventory of traders, and port inventory [45]. 5.2 Upstream Lithium Salt Supply - Lithium carbonate supply: The overall production of sample enterprises has increased, with different production lines showing varying degrees of change in production and operating rates [47]. - Lithium carbonate net exports: Data on the seasonal net exports of lithium carbonate are presented [62]. - Lithium carbonate inventory: Lithium carbonate inventory has decreased this week, including inventory in smelters, downstream enterprises, and other channels [63]. - Lithium hydroxide supply: Data on the monthly production of lithium hydroxide by different processes are provided [70][71]. 5.3 Mid - Stream Material Factory Supply - Material factory production: The production and operating rates of various battery materials, such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, cobalt acid lithium, and manganese acid lithium, have changed to different extents [75]. - Material factory inventory: Data on the weekly inventory of various battery materials are provided [92][95]. 5.4 Downstream Cell Supply - Power cell production: China's power cell production has increased this week, with different types of power cells showing different growth rates [96]. - Lithium battery installation volume: Data on China's lithium battery installation volume are presented [100]. 5.5 New Energy Vehicles - New energy vehicle production and sales: The production and sales of new energy vehicles, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles, have changed to different extents. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in domestic passenger cars has decreased slightly [102][105]. - Automobile inventory: Data on the domestic automobile dealer inventory warning index are provided [114]. 5.6 Energy Storage - Data on the total scale of energy storage bid - winning power and capacity are presented, showing an upward trend [116].