Minsheng Securities·2025-10-18 09:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for key companies in the oil and gas sector, specifically China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Zhongman Petroleum, and New Natural Gas [4]. Core Views - The geopolitical premium on crude oil has weakened, with OPEC+ supply dominating in the short term. The report highlights that despite pressures on oil prices due to increased OPEC+ production, there remains a bottom support for prices [1][8]. - The report suggests that the market's main influences on oil prices are the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the supply intensity from OPEC+, rather than the recent developments in U.S.-China trade tensions or India's oil import policies [1][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - As of October 17, the U.S. dollar index decreased to 98.55, while Brent crude oil futures settled at $61.29 per barrel, down 2.30% week-on-week, and WTI futures at $57.54 per barrel, down 2.31% [2][9]. - U.S. crude oil production rose to 13.64 million barrels per day, an increase of 10,000 barrels from the previous week, while refinery throughput decreased to 15.13 million barrels per day, down 117,000 barrels [10][11]. Company Performance - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for key companies: China National Petroleum Corporation (0.90 CNY for 2024), China National Offshore Oil Corporation (2.90 CNY for 2024), and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (0.41 CNY for 2024) [4]. - The report indicates that the petrochemical sector is experiencing a "de-involution" policy, recommending attention to industry leaders with stable performance and high dividends, such as China National Petroleum and China Petroleum & Chemical [3][11]. Market Trends - The report notes that the oil and gas sector has seen a decline of 2.8% as of October 17, underperforming the broader market indices [12][16]. - The report highlights that the refining sub-sector had the highest weekly increase of 0.2%, while other petrochemical sub-sectors experienced declines, with the largest drop being 7.9% [16][17].