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煤价超预期上涨,供给收缩下后市涨价动能持续
Minsheng Securities·2025-10-18 09:17

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal sector, highlighting strong price recovery and supply constraints as key factors for investment opportunities [3][4][15]. Core Views - Coal prices have accelerated unexpectedly, with supply constraints continuing to support price increases. The report anticipates that coal prices may exceed 900 RMB/ton by the end of the year due to seasonal demand and supply-side restrictions [2][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high spot price elasticity stocks, recommending specific companies based on their performance and growth potential in the current market environment [3][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of October 12, coal production from 442 mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia was 26.77 million tons, down 4.1% year-on-year and 1.0% month-on-month, indicating a consistent decline in supply [1][9]. - The report notes that since July 2025, the monthly coal production has seen a year-on-year decline of over 3%, with further reductions expected due to safety inspections and production checks [1][9]. Price Trends - The report highlights that coal prices rebounded sharply post-National Day, contrary to expectations of a seasonal decline, primarily driven by supply-side constraints [2][10]. - The report forecasts that non-electric demand, particularly from the coal chemical sector, will increase, providing additional support for coal prices [2][10]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. High spot price elasticity stocks: Lu'an Environmental Energy [3][15]. 2. Stable growth stocks: Jinko Coal Industry, Huayang Co., Ltd. [3][15]. 3. Stocks with recovery potential: Shanxi Coal International [3][15]. 4. Industry leaders: China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry [3][15]. 5. Beneficiaries of nuclear power growth: CGN Mining [3][15]. Company Performance - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the coming years [4][15]. - The coal sector has shown resilience, with the CITIC coal sector index rising 4.3% in the week ending October 17, outperforming the broader market indices [16][18].