玻璃纯碱周报：玻璃提价厂内库存去化纯碱供应升至高位-20251018

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views Glass - Last week, glass cost and profit both increased. The supply rose as previously commissioned production lines started outputting glass, and there's a possibility of output increase in some Shahe production lines but the time is uncertain. Currently in the peak season, demand has recovered, with downstream procurement being active due to price hikes by glass factories, leading to a rise in apparent demand. Glass factory inventories decreased due to price hikes and pre - holiday restocking demand. After the National Day, the downstream's willingness to accept goods and price transmission need further observation. It's advisable to hold an empty position before the holiday, and the 1 - 5 month spread may strengthen. The glass index is expected to range between 1200 - 1280. Key events to watch include glass output, glass factory inventories, and glass spot prices [5][6][7]. 纯碱 - Last week, soda ash production increased and is at a high level. With the upcoming commissioning of Alxa Phase II, production is expected to continue rising. Demand for heavy soda ash is strongly supported by the increasing output of photovoltaic and float glass, while light soda ash demand is relatively stable. Pre - holiday restocking led to a decrease in soda ash factory inventories, but in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will be looser and inventory accumulation is inevitable. Soda ash cost increased and profit declined last week. It's advisable to hold an empty position before the holiday, and the 1 - 5 month spread is expected to weaken. The soda ash index is expected to range between 1260 - 1330. Key events to watch include soda ash factory maintenance, inventory accumulation, and glass output [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Price - The mainstream market glass prices are running strongly. As of September 26, the market price of 5mm float glass in North China was 1200 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous period, and in Central China, it was 1270 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton [9][10]. Supply - The output of float glass increased month - on - month. Some production lines in Shahe may be cold - repaired due to coal - to - gas conversion, but the time is undetermined. Last week, the float glass output was 1.1242 million tons (+0.3), and the national float glass operating rate was 76.01% (+0) [12][14]. Demand - In the peak season, glass demand has recovered. Due to price hikes by glass factories, downstream procurement is active, driving up the apparent demand. As of September 28, the downstream deep - processing factory order days were 10.5 days (+0.1), and last week, the weekly apparent demand for float glass was 24.0375 million weight boxes (+938,000) [16][18]. Inventory - Glass factory inventories decreased due to price hikes and pre - holiday restocking. Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million weight boxes (-1.553 million), and the in - factory inventory in Hubei was 4.67 million weight boxes (-390,000). Regionally, East China's inventory decreased, with improved production and sales; North China's inventory decreased significantly after being boosted by news; Southwest China's inventory increased slightly; Central China's inventory decreased [20][22][26]. Cost and Profit - Glass cost and profit both increased last week. The weekly average cost of float glass using natural gas as fuel was 1396 yuan/ton (+0), using coal - gas as fuel was 1018 yuan/ton (+3), and using petroleum coke as fuel was 1067 yuan/ton (+11). The corresponding weekly average profits were - 151.27 yuan/ton (+13.57), 95.07 yuan/ton (+1.04), and 61.37 yuan/ton (+20) [27][29][33]. Basis and Month Spread - As of September 26, the glass 01 basis was - 92, up 44 from the previous week; the glass 1 - 5 contract spread was - 120, up 7 from the previous week. The basis is at a low level in the same period of previous years, mainly due to the weakened supply - demand pattern. If price hikes can be passed on to the downstream, it will drive the basis and month spread upwards [35][37]. Soda Ash Price - The prices of light and heavy soda ash in the mainstream market are fluctuating weakly. As of September 26, the market price of light soda ash in Qinghai was 980 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week, and the market price of heavy soda ash was 1203 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton week - on - week [41][43]. Supply - Soda ash production increased month - on - month and is at a high level. With the upcoming commissioning of Alxa Phase II, production is expected to continue rising, which will have a strong bearish impact on the market. Last week, soda ash production was 776,900 tons (+31,200), including light soda ash production of 346,800 tons (+18,800) and heavy soda ash production of 430,100 tons (+12,400) [45][47]. Demand - The output of photovoltaic glass is gradually increasing, and the output of float glass increased month - on - month. Overall, the demand for heavy soda ash is strongly supported, and the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable. Last week, the daily output of float and photovoltaic glass was 250,055 tons (+600). Driven by pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises, the apparent demand for soda ash increased month - on - month, reaching 881,000 tons (+93,400) last week [49][53]. Inventory - Soda ash factory inventories decreased last week due to pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will be looser, and inventory accumulation is inevitable. Regionally, North China's inventory decreased significantly, Northwest China's inventory decreased, and Southwest China's inventory remained unchanged [59][61][66]. Cost and Profit - Soda ash cost increased and profit declined last week. The cost support for heavy soda ash in East China using the combined - soda process is around 1310 [67][68]. Basis and Month Spread - As of September 26, the soda ash 01 contract basis was - 90, flat from the previous week; the soda ash 1 - 5 contract spread was - 91, down 2 from the previous week. The basis is at a low level in the same period of previous years, mainly due to the poor supply - demand pattern of the spot market. Considering new capacity additions, the basis is expected to remain low, and the month spread is expected to decline further [70][72].