2025Q4海外经济与资产展望：美欧日政策差异下的弱美元

Economic Outlook - The US economy is experiencing marginal slowdown, with a projected annualized GDP growth rate of 2%-2.5%[10] - The unemployment rate in the US is currently at 4.3%, showing signs of concern in the labor market[15] - In Europe, economic stability is observed due to continuous interest rate cuts, but structural issues persist, particularly in Germany[4] - Japan's economy remains stable, with consumer confidence improving, but faces challenges from US tariffs and yen appreciation[4] Asset Projections - US Treasury yields are expected to decline towards 3.5% as the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates[4] - The US dollar is projected to weaken due to divergent monetary policies among the US, Eurozone, and Japan[4] - Gold prices may face short-term correction pressure but have strong medium-term support due to fiscal debt and monetary easing[4] Fiscal Policy Impact - The "Big and Beautiful" fiscal plan is projected to increase the US federal deficit by approximately $2 trillion over five years and $3.4 trillion over ten years[19] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts a future deficit rate of 6.8%, up from a baseline of 5.8% due to the fiscal plan[23] - High deficit levels have led to increased government debt and rising interest pressures, with the average deficit rate since FY 2025 being 6.8%[28]