A股市场运行周报第63期：“内外两因”触发调整，再平衡、控弹性-20251018

Core Insights - The report indicates that the A-share market is under pressure due to both internal factors (previous excessive gains leading to inherent adjustment pressure) and external factors (Trump's renewed tariff war), resulting in negative returns across major indices [1][53]. - The report anticipates that the ChiNext index has "effectively broken" its upward trend line, suggesting a high probability of weekly-level consolidation in the future, while the Shanghai Composite and Shanghai 50 indices remain above their upward trend lines, retaining the potential for further upward movement [1][4][55]. - Market style is shifting, with large-cap stocks undergoing a "gear shift," and it is expected that funds will continue to switch styles and rebalance sectors, particularly with large financials (especially brokerage firms) being a "core variable" for the resurgence of weighted indices [1][4][56]. Weekly Market Overview - Major indices recorded negative returns, with the Shanghai Composite, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 down by 1.47%, 0.24%, and 2.22% respectively, while growth indices like CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000 fell by 5.17%, 4.62%, and 4.69% respectively [12][53]. - The ChiNext index and STAR 50 experienced larger fluctuations, declining by 5.71% and 6.16% respectively, with the North Star 50 down for the sixth consecutive week by 4.91% [12][53]. - The Hong Kong market mirrored the A-share adjustments, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech down by 3.97% and 7.98% respectively [12][53]. Sector Analysis - In terms of sector performance, 4 out of 30 sectors rose while 26 fell, indicating a "dividend style supporting the market" with significant pullbacks in technology-related sectors [13][54]. - Financial sectors such as banks and coal saw increases of 4.99% and 4.27% respectively, while technology sectors like electronics, media, computing, and communications experienced declines of 7.10%, 6.28%, 5.90%, and 5.63% respectively [13][54]. - Non-bank financials fell by 1.09%, but this was a relatively smaller decline compared to other high-beta sectors, indicating potential resilience [13][54]. Market Sentiment and Fund Flow - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased to 2.18 trillion yuan, down from 2.59 trillion yuan the previous week, indicating a drop in market sentiment [21][28]. - The margin trading balance slightly increased to 2.45 trillion yuan, with a financing buy ratio of 11.1%, showing a slight decline from the previous week [28]. - The report notes a net inflow of 159 billion yuan into equity ETFs, with the banking ETF seeing the highest inflow of 65.8 billion yuan, while the pharmaceutical ETF experienced the largest outflow of 6.9 billion yuan [28][33]. Valuation Insights - The dynamic valuation model indicates that major market indices are generally in a moderately high valuation range, with the ChiNext index showing a slightly lower valuation percentile [44][46]. - As of October 17, 2025, the PE-TTM ratios for major indices are as follows: Shanghai Composite at 16.51 (92.58 percentile), Shenzhen Component at 30.02 (71.33 percentile), ChiNext at 41.35 (32.51 percentile), and CSI 300 at 14.15 (55.25 percentile) [44][46].