宏观点评：9月财政有喜有忧，今年预算能完成吗？-20251018

Revenue Insights - In the first nine months of 2025, general fiscal revenue reached 16.39 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%[1] - In September alone, general fiscal revenue was 1.57 trillion, growing by 2.58% year-on-year, an increase of 0.55 percentage points from August[3] - Tax revenue in September was 1.16 trillion, up 8.7% year-on-year, marking a 5.3 percentage point increase from the previous month[3] Expenditure Trends - Total general fiscal expenditure for the first nine months was 20.81 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[1] - September's general fiscal expenditure was 2.87 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 3.08%, up 2.26 percentage points from August[3] - Government fund expenditure in September was 1.23 trillion, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.37%, but down 19.4% from the previous month[11] Fiscal Challenges - Non-tax revenue has seen a continuous decline for five months, with September's figure at 409.9 billion, down 11.4% year-on-year[3] - The government fund budget may face a shortfall of approximately 370 billion due to pressure on land transfer income[5] - The Ministry of Finance announced a continuation of 500 billion in local government debt management, with an additional 100 billion compared to 2024[2] Future Outlook - The total deficit for 2026 is expected to be at least as high as this year, with a deficit rate likely to remain around 4%[5] - There are indications of an accelerating economic downturn, necessitating timely policy adjustments to stimulate growth[4] - The focus for the fiscal sector should be on expediting existing policies and increasing tangible work output[4]