9月财政数据点评：收入回升支出放缓，4季度债券供给压力有限

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, fiscal revenue slightly rebounded while fiscal expenditure continued to decline. The fourth - quarter bond supply pressure is limited [1][8]. - The increase in general budget revenue in September was mainly due to the rise in tax revenue growth and the expansion of the decline in non - tax revenue. Tax revenue such as income tax, VAT, and securities transaction stamp duty had high year - on - year growth rates. Government fund revenue turned slightly positive year - on - year [1][2][11]. - In terms of expenditure, the expenditure of the first - account (general public budget) increased slightly year - on - year, while that of the second - account (government funds) decreased significantly. Traditional infrastructure expenditure continued to contract, and social security expenditure maintained a high growth rate [3][19]. - Cumulatively, the fiscal revenue growth rate is close to the annual budget growth rate, and there is a divergence in the expenditure of the two accounts. The fourth - quarter government bond supply is relatively small even if the 500 billion yuan of remaining quota is issued [4][25][29]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fiscal Revenue - General Situation of Fiscal Revenue: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of broad fiscal revenue was 3.2%, up from the previous value of 0.3%. The general public budget revenue in September had a year - on - year growth of 2.6% (previous value: 2.0%), with tax revenue growing by 8.7% (previous value: 3.4%) and non - tax revenue dropping by 11.4% (previous value: - 3.8%) [1][8][11]. - Tax Revenue: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of tax revenue was 8.7%. Among the four major taxes, corporate income tax grew by 19.6% year - on - year, individual income tax by 16.7%, VAT by 7.6% (contributing the most to the month's tax revenue growth, up to 3.24%), and securities transaction stamp duty by 342.4%, driven by the high activity of the stock market [2][13][14]. - Government Fund Revenue: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of government fund revenue was 5.6% (previous value: - 5.7%), and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was - 0.5%. There may be a need to boost the year - end government fund revenue [2][17]. Fiscal Expenditure - General Situation of Fiscal Expenditure: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure was 2.3%, down from the previous value of 6.0%. The general public budget expenditure had a year - on - year growth of 3.08% (previous value: 0.82%), and the government fund expenditure had a year - on - year growth of 0.4% (previous value: 19.8%) [1][3][8]. - Expenditure Structure: Traditional infrastructure expenditure continued to contract, with an overall year - on - year growth rate of - 1.2% (previous value: - 10.1%), showing significant internal differentiation. Expenditure on science and technology grew by 26.6% year - on - year, and social security expenditure by 8.8% [3][19]. Cumulative Fiscal Situation - Revenue: From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of general public budget revenue was 0.5%, tax revenue was 0.7%, and non - tax revenue was - 0.4%. The fiscal revenue growth rate reached the initial budget (0.1%), but the improvement of the fiscal revenue structure fell short of expectations. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of government fund revenue was - 0.5%, lower than the initial budget of 0.7% [4][25]. - Expenditure: From January to September, the fiscal expenditure growth rate was 3.1%, lower than the annual budget growth rate of 4.4%. The growth rate of government fund expenditure was 23.9%, slightly higher than the annual budget growth rate of 23.1%. The expenditure rhythm of the first - account was relatively slow, and the second - account had an early - stage expenditure boost, with limited space for further efforts from September to December [4][25]. Fourth - Quarter Government Bond Supply - The peak of government bond supply has passed. According to the annual budget, the remaining government bond supply in the fourth quarter is about 2 trillion yuan. Even if the 500 billion yuan of remaining quota is issued in the fourth quarter, the net financing of government bonds will still be significantly lower than the same period last year [4][29].