高频经济周报（2025.10.12-2025.10.18）：地产市场回升，港口吞吐量下行-20251018

Report Information - Report Title: High - frequency Economic Weekly (2025.10.12 - 2025.10.18) [3] - Date: October 18, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Lv Qiang, Wang Zheyi [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents an analysis of the economic situation from multiple aspects during the period of 2025.10.12 - 2025.10.18, indicating that the industrial production shows a seasonal rebound, personnel flow increases while freight prices decline slightly, consumption has mixed performance, construction investment is weak but the real - estate market rebounds seasonally, and export port throughput decreases with differentiated shipping indices. Also, various major policy events have occurred during this period [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Large - Scale Assets - This week, bond indices generally rose, stock indices generally fell, most commodities declined, and foreign currencies generally appreciated. The ChinaBond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index had the largest weekly increase of 0.33%. The STAR 50 Index had the largest weekly decline of 6.16%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the largest increase of 10.76%, and the Nanhua Energy and Chemicals Index had the largest decline of 3.43%. The Japanese yen had the largest increase against the RMB with a weekly increase of 1.22%, and the US dollar appreciated against the RMB with a weekly increase of 0.05% [3]. 3.2. Industrial Production - Production showed a seasonal rebound. From the upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week. The petroleum asphalt plant operation rate increased by 1.30 percentage points to 35.80% week - on - week, the blast furnace operation rate remained the same as last week at 84.25%, and the crude steel output increased by 7.57% week - on - week. In the real - estate chain, the rebar operation rate increased by 1.35 percentage points to 41.33% week - on - week, the float glass operation rate increased by 0.34 percentage points to 76.65%, and the mill operation rate decreased by 0.49 percentage points to 37.89% week - on - week. In the consumer goods chain, the polyester filament operation rate decreased by 0.03 percentage points to 91.06% week - on - week, the PTA operation rate decreased by 1.92 percentage points to 75.56%, and the methanol operation rate increased by 4.00 percentage points to 84.38% week - on - week. In the automobile chain, the automobile semi - steel tire operation rate increased by 26.21 percentage points to 72.72% week - on - week, and the automobile all - steel tire operation rate increased by 20.56 percentage points to 64.52% week - on - week [3]. 3.3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow increased, and freight prices declined slightly. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 3.25% week - on - week. The 7DMA of the number of domestic flights decreased by 0.66% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of international flights decreased by 0.11% week - on - week. The subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou all decreased. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.02% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [3]. 3.4. Consumption - Automobile retail sales declined, and prices showed a mixed performance. The previous - period automobile wholesale decreased by 1.00% year - on - year, and retail increased by 7.00% year - on - year. Both the 4WMA of the wholesale year - on - year growth rate and the 4WMA of the retail year - on - year growth rate declined. The weekly box office of movies decreased by 73% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of movie - goers decreased by 73% week - on - week. Agricultural product prices showed a mixed performance. The pork price decreased by 2.38% week - on - week, and the vegetable price increased by 0.13% week - on - week [3]. 3.5. Investment - Construction showed weak performance, and the real - estate market rebounded seasonally. The cement storage capacity ratio increased by 1.6 percentage points week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 0.01% week - on - week, and the cement shipment rate decreased by 2.1 percentage points week - on - week. The rebar inventory decreased by 2.4% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 percentage points week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 39.4% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction was weak. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 171.0% week - on - week. By city - tier, the commercial housing transaction areas in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 165.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 large and medium - sized cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [3]. 3.6. Export - Port throughput decreased, and shipping indices showed a mixed performance. The weekly port cargo throughput decreased by 8.4% week - on - week, and the container throughput decreased by 6.1% week - on - week. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 6.87% week - on - week, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) increased by 12.92% week - on - week, and the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) decreased by 4.11% week - on - week [3]. 3.7. Major Policies/Events - On October 13, the year - on - year export in September 2025 was 8.3%, exceeding expectations. On October 14, China imposed countermeasures on 5 US subsidiaries of South Korea's Hwa Ocean Co., Ltd. On October 14, the central bank announced a 6 - month repurchase of 600 billion yuan on October 15. On October 15, the year - on - year growth rates of CPI and PPI improved moderately. On October 15, the year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing decreased. On October 17, the central government allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to local governments [3].