Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the economic situation from multiple aspects, including industrial production, people and freight flow, consumption, investment, export, and the performance of major asset classes. It points out that industrial production shows seasonal recovery, people flow increases while freight prices decline slightly, consumption has mixed performance, construction shows weakness while the real - estate market recovers seasonally, port throughput decreases, and shipping indices are differentiated. Also, major asset classes show distinct trends with bond indices rising, stock indices falling, most commodities dropping, and foreign currencies appreciating [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Major Asset Classes - This week, bond indices generally rose, stock indices generally fell, most commodities declined, and foreign currencies generally appreciated. Among them, the ChinaBond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index rose the most, with a weekly increase of 0.33%; the STAR 50 Index fell the most, with a weekly decline of 6.16%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose the most among commodities, with a gain of 10.76%, and the Nanhua Energy and Chemicals Index fell the most, with a decline of 3.43%. Foreign currencies appreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest increase, a weekly gain of 1.22%, and the US dollar appreciating against the RMB, with a weekly gain of 0.05% [1]. 2. Industrial Production - Production shows seasonal recovery. In the upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased by 1.30 pcts to 35.80% week - on - week, the blast furnace operating rate remained flat at 84.25% compared with last week, and the crude steel output increased by 7.57% week - on - week. In the real - estate chain, the operating rate of rebar production increased by 1.35 pcts to 41.33% week - on - week, the operating rate of float glass increased by 0.34 pcts to 76.65% week - on - week, and the mill operation rate decreased by 0.49 pcts to 37.89% week - on - week. In the consumer goods chain, the operating rate of polyester filament decreased by 0.03 pcts to 91.06% week - on - week, the operating rate of PTA decreased by 1.92 pcts to 75.56% week - on - week, and the operating rate of methanol increased by 4.00 pcts to 84.38% week - on - week. In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires increased by 26.21 pcts to 72.72% week - on - week, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires increased by 20.56 pcts to 64.52% week - on - week [1]. 3. People and Freight Flow - People flow increased, while freight prices declined slightly. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 3.25% week - on - week. The 7DMA of the number of domestic flights decreased by 0.66% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of international flights decreased by 0.11% week - on - week. The subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou all decreased. In terms of freight flow, the 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.02% week - on - week, but the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [1]. 4. Consumption - Automobile retail sales showed a decline, and prices were differentiated. The previous period's automobile wholesale sales decreased by 1.00% year - on - year, and retail sales increased by 7.00% year - on - year. The 4WMA of the wholesale and retail year - on - year growth rates both declined. This period's movie box office decreased by 73% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of movie - goers decreased by 73% week - on - week. Agricultural product prices were differentiated, with pork prices decreasing by 2.38% week - on - week and vegetable prices increasing by 0.13% week - on - week [1]. 5. Investment - Construction showed weakness, while the real - estate market recovered seasonally. The cement storage capacity ratio increased by 1.6 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 0.01% week - on - week, and the cement shipping rate decreased by 2.1 pcts week - on - week. The rebar inventory decreased by 2.4% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 39.4% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction was weak. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 171.0% week - on - week. By city - tier, the commercial housing transaction areas in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 165.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [1]. 6. Export - Port throughput decreased, and shipping indices were differentiated. This period's port cargo throughput decreased by 8.4% week - on - week, and the container throughput decreased by 6.1% week - on - week. The BDI index increased by 6.87% week - on - week, the SCFI index increased by 12.92% week - on - week, and the CCFI index decreased by 4.11% week - on - week [1].
高频经济周报：地产市场回升，港口吞吐量下行-20251018
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-18 12:08