一篇说清楚：Q4政府债券供给

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Q4 government bond issuance plan has significant changes, and the probability of additional treasury bond issuance this year is low, while local bond issuance has its own characteristics and trends [2][3]. - The Q4 government bond issuance forecast shows that the net financing is expected to be around 2.4 trillion yuan, lower than the average level of the past five quarters, with the supply pressure in October concentrated in the second half of the month [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Q4 Treasury Bond Issuance Plan Highlights - The Q4 plan announced on September 30 by the Ministry of Finance has changes compared with the annual plan. Some maturity issuance dates in October are adjusted, and the 30 - year ultra - long special treasury bond cancellation of re - issuance is replaced by one re - issuance each of 50 - year and 20 - year bonds [2][9]. - After the new plan, the spread between 25 Te 6 and 25 Te 2 widened under selling pressure. The issuance scale of 25 Te 6 stopped at 247 billion yuan, and the spread rose from 9.5 BP on September 29 to 13.20 BP [2][10]. October Treasury Bond Volume Reduction: May Indicate Low Probability of Additional Treasury Bond Issuance This Year - The remaining quota for ordinary treasury bonds is about 1.06 trillion yuan, and the issuance of special treasury bonds has been completed [14]. - The single - issue scale of key - maturity coupon treasury bonds in October decreased to 130.6 billion yuan, indicating a low probability of additional issuance this year [3][14]. Local Bonds: Analysis of Remaining Quotas and Issuance Forms This Year Local Bond Stock Quota Issuance Progress - The remaining quota for new bonds is 83.09 billion yuan, including 12.83 billion yuan for new general bonds and 70.27 billion yuan for other new special bonds [21]. - The issuance of debt - resolution bonds has basically completed the stock quota. The 2 - trillion - yuan replacement bonds have issued 1.9924 trillion yuan, and the 800 - billion - yuan new special bonds for debt resolution have been fully issued [21]. How to View Local Bond Additional Issuance - The advance allocation of the 2026 new local government debt quota is a regular Q4 operation, and additional issuance needs to wait until next year. The potential advance - batch quota may be 312 billion yuan [22]. - The central government arranges 50 billion yuan from the local government debt balance quota to be allocated to local areas, corresponding to an additional issuance of 50 billion yuan in special refinancing bonds and new special bonds this year. Special refinancing bonds have started issuing next week [26]. - The probability of advancing the issuance of replacement bonds to this year may have decreased. The Ministry of Finance issued a 6 - trillion - yuan replacement bond quota to provinces in 2024, and additional approval is needed for early issuance [32]. Q4 Government Bond Issuance Forecast - The to - be - issued quota for Q4 government bonds may be 2.6 trillion yuan, and the remaining quota as of October 17 is about 2.4 trillion yuan [5][34]. - Local bond net financing in Q4 is expected to be around 1.2 trillion yuan, with October, November, and December at around 650 billion, 440 billion, and 80 billion yuan respectively [5][35]. - Treasury bond net financing in Q4 is expected to be around 1.2 trillion yuan, with October, November, and December at around 230 billion, 630 billion, and 340 billion yuan respectively [5][38]. - Government bond net financing in Q4 is expected to be around 2.4 trillion yuan, lower than the average of the past five quarters. The net financing in October, November, and December is around 890 billion, 1070 billion, and 420 billion yuan respectively. The supply pressure in October is concentrated in the second half of the month, and attention should be paid to the liquidity fluctuation risk [5][38].