原油周报：底部区间，等待信号-20251018

Report Title - Crude Oil Weekly Report 2025/10/18 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Although current high - frequency macro factors show extreme bearishness, the fundamental and valuation of crude oil itself are overly undervalued. Geopolitical factors are not completely gone, and the current price is approaching the break - even line of North American heavy and light crude oils (WCS & WTI), so there's no need to be overly pessimistic about oil prices. Three high - frequency signals are awaited to meet the conditions for going long on crude oil: 1. Speculative trading returns to activity. 2. North American production cuts similar to previous instances when the break - even line was reached. 3. Middle - East actions to cut exports and support prices similar to previous ones [16]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: Crude oil declined continuously this week. Amid uncertainties in macro - trade and expectations of geopolitical easing from US - Russia negotiations, the US once claimed that Japan and India would stop buying Russian oil, but all parties were vague due to the economic benefits of Russian oil, thus failing to provide geopolitical premium for crude oil [16]. - Supply - Demand Changes: OPEC had a "qualitative meeting" for the second - round production increase, maintaining a principled increase of 137,000 barrels per day. US shale oil production increased slightly before, and refinery operations maintained a seasonal decline but are about to enter a small demand peak season. The crack spread of refined oil declined, and the monthly spread of crude oil itself was stronger than the performance of the unit price [16]. - Macro - Politics: At the macro level, after the US unilaterally created trade conflicts, US President Trump said that Indian Prime Minister Modi had promised to stop buying oil from Russia and would then try to get China to do the same. Multiple Western countries announced the resumption of sanctions on Iran. The US and Russia had a new round of calls, and Russia agreed to a peace talk proposed by the US. Ukraine faced an energy crisis, and the UK imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies and shadow tankers. - Viewpoint Summary: Wait for three high - frequency signals to meet the conditions for going long on crude oil [16]. 2. Macro & Geopolitical - Short - Term High - Frequency Macro Indicators: Include the US ISM manufacturing PMI, the Citigroup G10 economic surprise index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the US long - short - term spread, which are all related to WTI oil prices [38]. - Medium - Term Macro Forecast Indicators: Such as the euro - zone investment confidence index, the US investment confidence index, the US GDP growth rate forecast, and the global major countries' GDP growth rate forecast [41]. - Geopolitical Indicators: The Middle - East geopolitical risk index and the high - frequency export statistics of sensitive oil countries (Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and Russia) are related to WTI oil prices [44]. 3. Oil Product Spreads - Forward Curve: Analyze the WTI crude oil forward curve, the near - far structure of various crude oils, the WTI crude oil M1/M4 monthly spread, and the WTI crude oil M1 price [49]. - Inter - regional Spreads: Include Brent/WTI, Brent/Dubai, INE/WTI, and MRBN/WTI spreads [52]. - Product Spreads: Analyze the LGO diesel forward curve, the near - far structure of refined oil products, and the RB/HO and LGO/RB spreads [59]. - Crack Spreads: Cover the crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Europe, and the US [67]. 4. Crude Oil Supply - Supply: OPEC & OPEC+ - OPEC Meeting Results: OPEC and OPEC+ have had a series of production - related decisions since 2023, including production cuts, extensions of production cuts, and production increases [80]. - OPEC & OPEC+ Situation Summary: Include the crude oil production and quota of OPEC 9 countries, OPEC idle crude oil capacity, OPEC & OPEC+ unplanned shutdown capacity, and the crude oil production and quota of OPEC+ 19 countries [81]. - OPEC 12 - Country Supply: Provide the crude oil production and export volume dynamic forecasts of OPEC 12 member countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, etc. [89]. - OPEC+ Major Member Supply: Include the dynamic forecasts of crude oil export volumes of Ecuador, Brazil, Mexico, and Russia [110]. - Supply: US - US Policies: The US Treasury announced sanctions on Iran, and there are various statements and policies from US President Trump regarding oil prices, sanctions, and international trade [115]. - US Supply: Oil Wells & Rigs: Not detailed in the provided content [117].