铜周报：中美经贸谈判变化左右市场情绪-20251018

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper valuation is slightly bullish with a neutral bias, as the domestic and foreign basis has risen, the refined - scrap spread has narrowed, and the global visible inventory has continued to increase. In terms of drivers, the decline in the global manufacturing PMI is bearish, while the US dollar index and copper concentrate processing fees are bullish. - Sino - US trade negotiations are still uncertain, but the mood has marginally improved after the weekend meeting of the two countries' trade negotiators. Industrially, the supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and overseas copper mine production cuts have tightened future supply expectations. Coupled with the improvement in downstream consumption as copper prices fall, there is strong price support. Short - term copper prices may run strongly. - The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai copper this week is 83,000 - 88,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is 10,450 - 11,000 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The spot processing fee for copper concentrates has declined, the processing fee for blister copper is flat, and the supply of cold materials remains tight. In August, Peru's copper production decreased by 1.6% year - on - year to 243,000 tons, and the cumulative production from January to August was 1.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [11]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.4 million tons week - on - week. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 0.1 to 1.1 million tons, the LME inventory decreased by 0.2 to 1.37 million tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.5 to 3.14 million tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 1.2 million tons. On Friday, the domestic spot in Shanghai was at a premium of 55 yuan/ton over the futures, and the LME market's Cash/3M was at a discount of 16.8 US dollars/ton [11]. - Imports and Exports: The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper first widened and then narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium fluctuated and declined. In August 2025, China's refined copper imports were 307,000 tons, and the net imports were 270,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 2.53 million tons, and the net imports were 2.071 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3% [11]. - Demand: The operating rate of domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises rebounded, and the spot trading gradually improved as the market price first rose and then fell. In the scrap copper market, the domestic refined - scrap spread narrowed, reducing the substitution advantage of scrap copper. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises rebounded after the National Day holiday [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: The price of the main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.77% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), while LME copper rose 2.25% to 10,607 US dollars/ton [21]. - Spot Prices: The spot price data of various copper products such as electrolytic copper, copper materials, and recycled copper are provided, showing price changes over different time points [23]. - Premiums and Discounts: On Friday, the spot copper in East China was at a premium of 55 yuan/ton over the futures. The LME's Cash/3M premium first strengthened and then weakened, reporting a discount of 16.8 US dollars/ton on Friday. The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper first widened and then narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) declined [26]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: The spot rough smelting fee (TC) for imported copper concentrates slightly declined to - 41.0 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China stabilized, still having a positive impact on copper smelting revenue [34]. - Import - Export Ratio: No specific analysis content is provided in the text. - Import - Export Profit and Loss: The spot import loss of copper first widened and then narrowed [39]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges was 561,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 100,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,000 tons. The decrease in the Shanghai Futures Exchange's inventory came from Jiangsu and Guangdong, while the inventory in Shanghai increased. The number of copper warehouse receipts increased by 12,885 to 42,849 tons. The LME inventory decreased, with the decrease coming from Asian and European warehouses, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts declined [42][45][48]. 3.4 Supply Side - Electrolytic Copper Monthly Output: According to SMM research data, China's refined copper output decreased month - on - month in September 2025, and it is expected to continue to decline in October. According to National Bureau of Statistics data, in August 2025, the domestic refined copper output was 1.301 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%, and the cumulative output from January to August was 9.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.1% [53]. - Import and Export Situation: In August 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase and a year - on - year increase of 7.3%. The cumulative imports from January to August were 20.054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 425,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 55,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The import volume of anode copper was 62,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 18.2%. The import volume of refined copper was 307,000 tons, and the net import volume was 270,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. The export volume of refined copper was 37,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 81,000 tons. The import volume of recycled copper was 179,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [56][59][62][68][71]. 3.5 Demand Side - Consumption Structure: China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs both rebounded in September, indicating a continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The manufacturing sentiment of major overseas economies has weakened marginally, with the manufacturing PMIs of the Eurozone, the UK, Japan, and India all declining [78]. - Downstream Industry Production Data: In August, the year - on - year production of automobiles, air conditioners, refrigerators, and power generation equipment increased, while that of color TVs, washing machines, AC motors, and freezers decreased. From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year production of power generation equipment, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and AC motors increased, while that of color TVs and freezers decreased [81]. - Real Estate Data: From January to August, domestic real estate data remained weak, with new construction, construction, sales, and completion all declining year - on - year, and the decline rates all widened. The national real estate climate index continued to decline in August [84]. - Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates: The operating rate of various downstream copper - related enterprises such as refined copper rod, scrap copper rod, enameled wire, wire and cable, copper tube, brass rod, copper strip, and copper foil enterprises showed different trends in September and expected trends in October [87][90][93][96]. - Refined - Scrap Spread: No specific analysis content is provided in the text. 3.6 Capital Side - Shanghai Copper Positions: The total position of Shanghai copper decreased by 95,302 to 1,061,152 lots (bilateral), and the position of the near - month 2511 contract was 287,706 lots (bilateral) [104]. - Foreign Fund Positions: As of September 23, CFTC funds maintained a net long position, with a net long ratio of 12.3%. The proportion of long positions of LME investment funds declined (as of October 10) [107].