Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the Sino-US trade war has led to a volatile downward trend in crude oil prices. Polyolefin registered warrants are at a historically high level for the same period, suppressing the market, and the polyolefin market continues in a contango situation. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, the rebound in downstream demand is weaker than in previous years, potentially resulting in a scenario where the peak season is not prosperous [15][17][18] - It is predicted that polyethylene (LL2601) will oscillate in the range of 7200 - 7500, and polypropylene (PP2601) in the range of 7000 - 7300. The recommended strategy is to adopt a wait-and-see approach [17] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Information: The Sino-US trade war has escalated again, causing crude oil prices to oscillate downward. In terms of valuation, polyethylene's weekly decline is in the order of futures > spot > cost, while for polypropylene, it is spot > futures > cost. On the cost side, last week, WTI crude oil dropped by -6.84%, Brent crude oil by -6.55%, coal prices rose by 4.58%, methanol by 3.11%, ethylene by -2.36%, and propylene by -3.94%, with propane remaining unchanged at 0.00%. There is still support on the cost side [15] - Supply: PE capacity utilization is 82.45%, a -1.86% decrease from the previous period, a 7.69% increase compared to the same period last year, and a -4.90% decrease compared to the average of the past 5 years. PP capacity utilization is 77.27%, a -0.68% decrease from the previous period, a -1.29% decrease compared to the same period last year, and a -7.77% decrease compared to the average of the past 5 years. According to the production plan, there is significant production pressure for polypropylene in the fourth quarter [15] - Imports and Exports: In August, domestic PE imports were 95.02 tons, a -14.17% decrease from the previous period and a -22.11% decrease compared to the same period last year. PP imports were 15.96 tons, a -9.91% decrease from the previous period and a -22.23% decrease compared to the same period last year. Import profits have declined, the supply of PE from North America has decreased, and the pressure on the import side has lessened. In August, PE exports were 11.60 tons, a 14.12% increase from the previous period and a 61.83% increase compared to the same period last year. PP exports were 25.02 tons, a 5.99% increase from the previous period and a 32.77% increase compared to the same period last year. With the start of Christmas stockpiling, PP exports may remain at a high level year-on-year [16] - Demand: The downstream operating rate of PE is 45.00%, a 1.44% increase from the previous period and a -0.13% decrease compared to the same period last year. The downstream operating rate of PP is 51.80%, a 0.08% increase from the previous period and a 0.12% increase compared to the same period last year. During the seasonal peak season, the downstream demand for polyolefins is lower than in previous years [16] - Inventory: PE production enterprise inventory is 52.95 tons, a 8.37% increase in inventory from the previous period and a -1.74% decrease compared to the same period last year; PE trader inventory is 5.03 tons, a -6.83% decrease in inventory. PP production enterprise inventory is 67.87 tons, a -0.40% decrease in inventory from the previous period and a 15.01% increase compared to the same period last year; PP trader inventory is 23.86 tons, a -8.62% decrease in inventory; PP port inventory is 6.79 tons, a -1.16% decrease in inventory. Overall, the inventory pressure of PP is higher than that of PE [16] - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to maintain a wait-and-see approach [17] 2. Spot and Futures Market - LLDPE: The closing price of the LLDPE main contract is 6910, a -3.77% change from the previous week; the spot price is 6990, a -2.58% change. Trading volume is 1,241,849 lots, a decrease of 3,297,726 lots from the previous week; open interest is 2,814,881 lots, a decrease of 10,944,309 lots. The basis is 80, an increase of 42 from the previous week; the spread between May and September contracts is -52, an increase of 0.21 [20] - PP: The closing price of the PP main contract is 6595, a -4.46% change from the previous week; the spot price is 6625, a -2.50% change. Trading volume is 1,936,771 lots, a decrease of 3,947,414 lots from the previous week; open interest is 3,235,034 lots, a decrease of 12,067,276 lots. The basis is 30, a decrease of 5 from the previous week; the spread between May and September contracts is -24, an increase of 0.33 [20] - Price Relationship: The South Korean ethylene plant clearance policy may boost the long - term strengthening of the LL - PP spread [61] 3. Cost Side - Cost Changes: Oil - based costs have significantly decreased. Last week, WTI crude oil dropped by -6.84%, Brent crude oil by -6.55%, coal prices rose by 4.58%, methanol by 3.11%, ethylene by -2.36%, and propylene by -3.94%, with propane remaining unchanged at 0.00% [15] - LPG Import: Freight rates for LPG imports have significantly decreased [106] 4. Polyethylene Supply Side - Raw Material Composition: The raw materials for PE production are mainly oil - based (80.00%), followed by light hydrocarbon (12.00%), coal - based (5.00%), methanol (2.00%), and purchased ethylene (1.00%) [136] - Production Capacity and Output: In 2025, a total of 463 tons of polyethylene production capacity has been put into operation, with 40 tons yet to be put into operation. The current PE capacity utilization is 82.45%, a -1.86% decrease from the previous period [142] - Maintenance Situation: There are multiple polyethylene plants with maintenance plans, with a total planned maintenance volume of 560.5 tons this month and a return volume of 255 tons [154] 5. Polyethylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - Inventory: PE production enterprise inventory is 52.95 tons, a 8.37% increase in inventory from the previous period and a -1.74% decrease compared to the same period last year; PE trader inventory is 5.03 tons, a -6.83% decrease in inventory [16] - Imports/Exports: In August, domestic PE imports were 95.02 tons, a -14.17% decrease from the previous period and a -22.11% decrease compared to the same period last year. Exports were 11.60 tons, a 14.12% increase from the previous period and a 61.83% increase compared to the same period last year [16] 6. Polyethylene Demand Side - The downstream operating rate of PE is 45.00%, a 1.44% increase from the previous period and a -0.13% decrease compared to the same period last year. During the seasonal peak season, the downstream demand for polyethylene is lower than in previous years [16] 7. Polypropylene Supply Side - Production Capacity and Output: PP capacity utilization is 77.27%, a -0.68% decrease from the previous period, a -1.29% decrease compared to the same period last year, and a -7.77% decrease compared to the average of the past 5 years. According to the production plan, there is significant production pressure for polypropylene in the fourth quarter [15] - Maintenance Situation: Not specifically mentioned in the document 8. Polypropylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - Inventory: PP production enterprise inventory is 67.87 tons, a -0.40% decrease in inventory from the previous period and a 15.01% increase compared to the same period last year; PP trader inventory is 23.86 tons, a -8.62% decrease in inventory; PP port inventory is 6.79 tons, a -1.16% decrease in inventory. Overall, the inventory pressure of PP is higher than that of PE [16] - Imports/Exports: In August, domestic PP imports were 15.96 tons, a -9.91% decrease from the previous period and a -22.23% decrease compared to the same period last year. Exports were 25.02 tons, a 5.99% increase from the previous period and a 32.77% increase compared to the same period last year. With the start of Christmas stockpiling, PP exports may remain at a high level year - on - year [16] 9. Polypropylene Demand Side - The downstream operating rate of PP is 51.80%, a 0.08% increase from the previous period and a 0.12% increase compared to the same period last year. During the seasonal peak season, the downstream demand for polypropylene is lower than in previous years [16]
聚烯烃周报：成本端驱动下行，PP库存压力更大-20251018
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-18 13:06