Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The domestic zinc ore apparent inventory has been depleted again, the domestic TC of zinc concentrate has declined again, and the growth rate of imported TC of zinc concentrate has slowed down. The total domestic zinc ingot inventory has increased, and the monthly spread of SHFE zinc has remained low; the registered warrants of LME zinc overseas have remained low, and the monthly spread of LME zinc has been high. After the zinc ingot export window opened, the SHFE-LME ratio stabilized. It is expected that SHFE zinc will operate weakly in the short term [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - Price Review: On Friday, the SHFE zinc index closed down 0.59% at 21,836 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 229,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME zinc 3S fell 6.5 to $2,948/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 224,600 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 21,850 yuan/ton, with a basis of -45 yuan/ton in Shanghai, -35 yuan/ton in Tianjin, -105 yuan/ton in Guangdong, and a price difference of 60 yuan/ton between Shanghai and Guangdong [11]. - Domestic Structure: According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals data, the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots increased slightly to 162,700 tons. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the SHFE was 67,300 tons, the basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was -45 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first continuous contract was -15 yuan/ton. Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 38,300 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 13,900 tons. The basis of the cash-3S contract in the overseas market was $137.2/ton, and the 3-15 spread was $69.99/ton. Cross-market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE-LME ratio on the disk was 1.043, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -4,529.7 yuan/ton [11]. - Industrial Data: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,400 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was $119/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 277,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 614,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.05%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 367,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die-cast zinc alloy was 54.63%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 57.13%, with a raw material inventory of 3,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 5,000 tons [11]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs in China and the US, and new and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non-ferrous metals industries, but does not provide specific text analysis [14][16][19][20]. 3. Supply Analysis - Zinc Ore Supply: In September 2025, the zinc ore output was 314,500 metal tons, a year-on-year change of -10.0% and a month-on-month change of -8.8%. From January to September, the total zinc ore output was 2,739,800 metal tons, a cumulative year-on-year change of -3.5%. In August 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 467,300 dry tons, a year-on-year change of 30.8% and a month-on-month change of -6.5%. From January to August, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 3,501,500 dry tons, a cumulative year-on-year change of 43.9%. In August 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 555,100 metal tons, a year-on-year change of 6.4% and a month-on-month change of -2.9%. From January to August, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 4,001,000 metal tons, a cumulative year-on-year change of 11.6% [25][27]. - Zinc Ingot Supply: In September 2025, the zinc ingot output was 600,100 tons, a year-on-year change of 20.2% and a month-on-month change of -4.2%. From January to September, the total zinc ingot output was 5,069,100 tons, a cumulative year-on-year change of 8.9%. In August 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 27,900 tons, a year-on-year change of -2.0% and a month-on-month change of 37.2%. From January to August, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 244,300 tons, a cumulative year-on-year change of -13.8%. In August 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 654,100 tons, a year-on-year change of 27.1% and a month-on-month change of 5.0%. From January to August, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 4,713,300 tons, a cumulative year-on-year change of 6.1% [33][35]. 4. Demand Analysis - Initial Demand: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.05%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 367,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die-cast zinc alloy was 54.63%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 57.13%, with a raw material inventory of 3,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 5,000 tons [39]. - Apparent Demand: In August 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 599,600 tons, a year-on-year change of 9.8% and a month-on-month change of 0.6%. From January to August, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 4,570,700 tons, a cumulative year-on-year change of 4.1% [41]. 5. Supply-Demand Inventory - Domestic Zinc Ingot Supply-Demand Balance: In August 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply-demand difference was a surplus of 54,400 tons. From January to August, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply-demand difference was a surplus of 142,600 tons [52]. - Overseas Refined Zinc Supply-Demand Balance: In July 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply-demand difference was a surplus of 3,000 tons. From January to July, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply-demand difference was a surplus of 28,200 tons [55]. 6. Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals data, the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots increased slightly to 162,700 tons. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the SHFE was 67,300 tons, the basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was -45 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first continuous contract was -15 yuan/ton [60]. - Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 38,300 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 13,900 tons. The basis of the cash-3S contract in the overseas market was $137.2/ton, and the 3-15 spread was $69.99/ton [63]. - Cross-market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE-LME ratio on the disk was 1.043, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -4,529.7 yuan/ton [64]. - Position Analysis: The net position of the top 20 holders of SHFE zinc has turned slightly net short, the net long position of investment funds in LME zinc has increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises has decreased. From a position perspective, it is neutral in the short term [67].
锌周报：锌矿TC滞涨，锌锭出口开启-20251018
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-18 13:06